A void of authenticity
Most voters describe Fetterman saying what he really believes, more than they describe Oz doing it. A large majority describes Oz as simply saying what he thinks voters want to hear. Coupled with criticism of Oz’s residence in Pennsylvania and its implications: two-thirds don’t think he’s lived in the state long enough to understand its problems. Oz trails Fetterman in terms of having “the right experience,” as well as in personal favorability ratings. In fact, most Oz supporters say they support him mostly to oppose Fetterman, not because they like Oz. And despite Oz’s recent entry into politics, it’s Fetterman who is seen most as “representing change.” Meanwhile, the Oz campaign’s efforts to raise health questions about Fetterman don’t seem as effective by comparison: most voters think Fetterman is well enough to serve. (Even nearly four in 10 Republicans say they are.)
The main proceedings: Buyer’s remorse for the GOP?
Democrats are more pleased with Fetterman’s appointment than Republicans are with Oz’s appointment. (This also applies to candidates in the governor’s race.) Non-MAGA Republicans (those who don’t consider themselves part of the movement) are more disappointed in Oz as their candidate than MAGA Republicans. These same non-MAGA Republicans don’t see their vote in the Senate as being about former President Donald Trump to the same degree that MAGA Republicans do. So maybe Trump’s endorsement of Oz doesn’t carry as much weight. And indeed, non-MAGA Republicans don’t support Oz as much as their MAGA counterparts. Fetterman’s supporters are more enthusiastic about him than Oz’s supporters are about Oz.
Topics in focus: The economy
The economy and inflation remain at the top of the list of broad issues, and that helps Oz — like Republicans nationally, he does better with voters who rank them highly. That’s partly because it’s the party out of power and because Republicans prioritize the economy more. Eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters say higher prices have been difficult or a hardship for them. Low-income Pennsylvanians are particularly hard hit. In fact, among independents, Oz fares a little better among those who describe price increases as a hardship or difficulty.
Abortion
The abortion issue helps Fetterman. For his Democratic base, abortion is more important than the economy. Fetterman leads among all those who say it is very important, both men and women. Most Democrats say overturning Roe v. Wade made them more likely to vote this year. (The issue makes no difference to most Republicans.)
National elections in a state
So much for “all politics is local”. By three to one, Pennsylvanians tell us that national issues and the direction of the country are more important to them than local issues when it comes to Senate elections. Fitting, perhaps, as all eyes of the nation are on the state.
So national figures play a big role – including Trump
Pennsylvania Democrats say their Senate vote is as much to oppose Trump as it is to support President Biden. Most Pennsylvania Republicans are motivated to oppose Mr. Biden. But four in 10 Republicans say their vote in the Senate is also for Trump. Beyond Republicans, however, Trump is viewed negatively across the race: for all voters for whom Trump is a factor — whether through support or opposition — they evenly choose Fetterman over Oz.
Democracy and…not so much desire for electoral refusal
Mr. Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020. A position taken by some Republicans in the 2022 primary, that Mr. Biden did not legitimately win the presidency, is not a position most voters want their elected officials to take. Only a third of the state’s Republicans — and just under a fifth of its voters — want elected officials in the state to claim that Mr. Biden did not win the 2020 election. An eight-in-10, bipartisan majority of voters would like to see the next secretary of state — who would be appointed by the governor — craft election rules that are bipartisan and favor neither. All this may signal that even for Republicans, now past the primaries, these positions are not the same lights.
Discussion about the discussion
Yes, a debate is at least somewhat important to voters, though not very important to most. Given the positions from the campaigns, it may come as no surprise that Republicans think it’s more important than Democrats. For Republicans who tend to believe that Fetterman is not in good enough health, a debate — perhaps strategically — has taken on added importance.
Governor’s Race
Of the four major-party candidates running for Senate and governor, Democrat Josh Shapiro has the highest personal favorability rating of all. That, combined with strong support from women, has him 11 points ahead of Republican Doug Mastriano. Shapiro has a big lead among voters who say abortion should be legal in Pennsylvania — which is most voters. That includes support from about a third of Republicans who think it should be legal. Meanwhile, more than eight in 10 voters think Mastriano would limit access in Pennsylvania. Additionally, there may be some “buyer’s remorse” from the Mastriano primary among Republicans, with four in 10 wishing their party had nominated a different candidate.
So what is local? Much more.
Crime, gun violence, and drug and opioid addiction are considered by most to be problems in their area in Pennsylvania. Republicans add that illegal immigration is a problem in their district. That goes for Republicans across the state. Democrats especially believe that racism, access to health care and school conditions are problems in their districts. Majorities of both Republicans and Democrats cite housing costs as a problem. This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,194 registered Pennsylvania voters interviewed between September 6 and 12, 2022. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education and geographic region based on the US Current Census Survey, as well as the 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±3.8 points. Top lines More
