But that image has suffered significant damage in recent days, as a blistering Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine exposed the inadequacies of Moscow’s master plan and forced Russian troops to retreat. Experts said the Russian collapse in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region represented the biggest challenge of Putin’s career and that the Kremlin leader was running out of options. Moscow tried to describe the hasty withdrawal as “restructuring”, but in a sign of how bad things look for Russia, the army has been publicly criticized by several high-profile Kremlin loyalists, including Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who supplied thousands of fighters on the attack. Russia has suffered significant setbacks earlier in the war — for example when it lost its Black Sea fleet flagship Moskva, or when it was forced to withdraw from the areas around the Ukrainian capital of Kiev. But the current situation could pose a much bigger problem for Putin, said Russian political analyst Anton Barbashin. “Kiev’s withdrawal was framed as a goodwill gesture, something they had to do to prevent civilian casualties,” he told CNN. “The propaganda component has always focused on the Donbas region as a top priority, but now that Russian forces are somewhat withdrawing from the Kharkiv region and the Luhansk region, it would be much more problematic to explain if Ukraine is actually doing it, push further and I saw no reason why they wouldn’t.” The Kremlin on Monday said Putin was aware of the situation on the front lines and insisted Russia would achieve all the goals of its “special military operation” — the phrase Moscow uses for its war in Ukraine — to take control of all Luhansk and Donetsk Regions. But this operation will be made much more difficult by Ukraine’s victories in neighboring Kharkiv. And setbacks there have sparked criticism and finger-pointing among prominent Russian military bloggers and Russian state media figures. Unusually, even Putin himself has been criticized. On Monday, deputies from 18 municipal districts in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kolpino called for Putin’s resignation, according to a petition with a list of signatures posted on Twitter.
There are no good options left
Experts said Putin would now face increasing pressure to respond with force. Influential Russian nationalist and pro-war voices are increasingly calling for radical steps, including full mobilization and intensified attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, some even suggesting the use of tactical nuclear weapons. “There is generally a very open sense of panic among Russian pro-war analysts and voices,” Barbashin said. The Kremlin has so far rejected the idea of a mass mobilization, and Russia watchers believe it is unlikely that Putin would call for such a mobilization because he knows such a move would prove rather unpopular and would be seen as an admission that the “special forces operation ” is actually war. Putin signed a decree last month to increase the number of military personnel to 1.15 million, adding 137,000 servicemen, but analysts say it will likely become increasingly difficult for Russia to recruit. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, pointed out on Sunday that some regional authorities have faced criticism for their push to recruit contract soldiers and volunteers to fight in Ukraine. The full extent of Ukraine’s recent gains — and its ability to sustain them — is still unclear. But experts say that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues at a similar pace, Putin will find it increasingly difficult to present himself as a strong general. “It’s the biggest challenge he faces as president and that Russia faces as an independent country after the collapse of the Soviet Union,” Barbashin said. The natural concern is that he might take radical steps to assert his authority. “[It] puts pressure on Putin to either assert leadership through major personnel changes or change the conduct of the war,” Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, told CNN. Haring said Putin could make some personnel changes, but that high-profile ousting is not usually his style. Putin could also listen to the voices of hawks from inside Russia and step up attacks on arms shipments and critical infrastructure or launch more cyber attacks, but in doing so he would risk even stronger retaliation. “[It’s] is not a great option as it could harden Ukraine’s already strong resolve and risk escalation with the West,” he said. The best option for Putin right now would be to push for negotiations and delay, Haring said. Moscow has already taken some tentative steps in this direction. In a surprise statement on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicated that Moscow may be willing to negotiate with Ukraine. “The president told the meeting participants that we do not refuse negotiations, but those who do should understand that the longer they postpone this process, the more difficult it will be for them to negotiate with us,” Lavrov said, according to Tass . Haring said pressure to negotiate would allow Russia to halt the Ukrainian advance and “continue shadow mobilization and reconstruction.” However, Kyiv has made it clear that it will reject negotiations that would involve ceding any Ukrainian territory. What experts say is inevitable is that the Kremlin will seek to deflect blame for the failed operation. For now, the propaganda machine largely sticks to the usual narrative. “The Russian media narrative blames NATO and the West for providing the support that led to Ukraine’s dramatic advances in Kharkiv and Donbass,” Haring said. However, if the courts of war in eastern Ukraine do not change quickly, Putin may find it increasingly difficult to shift the blame elsewhere. “The narrative, until six months ago, was kind of [Putin] he was a genius. He was a lot smarter than everybody, he’s a KGB agent… I think they’re going to try to justify it, but I think at the end of the day, most people are going to blame him,” Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army Europe, he told CNN on Monday. Barbashin agreed, saying it would be difficult for Putin to deflect blame for the failed operation. “The blame for the economic problems is much easier to pass on, but foreign policy has always been his domain, he’s been in power for almost a quarter of a century, and I don’t think you can convince the majority of Russians that he wasn’t the one making the calls. the shootings,” he said. It is unclear what the Kremlin will decide to do next. What is clear, however, is that Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine — and what he chooses to do next — will define his legacy. After this weekend, that legacy is more bruised than ever.
