Experts at the Weather Network, AccuWeather and Environment Canada agree that people across most of the country can expect more of the same in October: warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average rainfall. “School may be in, but boy, the weather is not fall at all,” David Phillips, senior climatologist for Environment and Climate Change Canada, told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview Wednesday. “You’d think it was the dog days of summer. You breathe the air and you don’t feel a drop at all.” According to the Weather Network’s annual fall forecast, unseasonably warm and dry conditions will persist for much of the country, with typical late fall weather and the first dusting of snow not expected for most areas until November. Until then, most areas can expect normal or slightly above normal temperatures, and mostly normal precipitation levels. Some outliers include the coastal provinces of British Columbia, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, PEI, and Newfoundland and Labrador. In these provinces, warm waters off the Pacific and Atlantic coasts could bring higher than average rainfall from the second half of October through November. “Additionally, we will continue to closely monitor the tropics and the increased risk for heavy rainfall from the remnants of tropical systems in southern and eastern parts of Quebec,” the forecast says.
GOOD FOR CROPS, BAD FOR FIRES
This fall’s unusually warm, dry weather will have both positive and negative effects, depending on the region. On the one hand, according to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson, a long, warm fall is a boost for Saskatchewan farmers who will have more time to harvest and dry conditions to get it done. “With the drier conditions they’ve had, the crops have done really well because they can get out in the field and do the harvest,” Anderson told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview Wednesday. On the other hand, the Weather Network reports that for British Columbia and Alberta, “a warm and dry start to the season means elevated wildfire risk will continue later into the fall than normal.” Additionally, Anderson said, while parts of the Northwest Territories and Yukon will experience a “cold start to fall,” much of northern Canada will experience a milder-than-typical winter thanks to climate change. “As we move into winter, with climate change, the far north is warming much faster than the lower latitudes,” Anderson said. “So unless we see anything spectacular, it’s very likely that the coming winter in the far north will be warmer than normal.”
