“We should have listened to those who know Putin.” It was a startling admission from Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday in the European Commission President’s State of the Union address. EU Russia hawks in Central and Eastern Europe have had it good ever since. Their powerful neighbors to the west got it wrong. But the remark left officials scrambling to frame it around their preferred narrative. For EU countries resisting the Kremlin, it was a reminder not to be ignored again: The EU must hit Russia with more sanctions and increase its aid to Ukraine. “I believe this is a moment in European history where our region can make a historic contribution,” said Lithuania’s EU Ambassador Arnoldas Pranckevičius. But in many Western EU capitals, it was seen more as a reflection on recent years, not a prescription for the future. “It’s a message about the past and it’s a mea culpa for Germany, France, Italy and many others,” said one Western European diplomat.
The split reaction reflects the reality inside the EU: After an initial wave of sanctions, progress has almost stalled on new measures on the war. There is little appetite for new sanctions, officials are still debating how to finalize a promised 9 billion euro aid package for Ukraine, and new European arms donations have declined in recent months. To some, Ukraine’s advances on the battlefield have even obviated the need for more sanctions on Russia, at least for now. “For the future, if Russia continued to win, then we would need more sanctions,” the Western European diplomat said.

Looking back – but looking to the future

In her speech, von der Leyen tried to strike a balance between praising the moral stance of Kremlin critics without calling for new sanctions. “We should have heard the voices inside our Union — in Poland, in the Baltics and across Central and Eastern Europe,” von der Leyen said. “We’ve been told for years that Putin will not stop.” On the eastern side of the EU, officials welcomed the Commission leader’s message — while insisting rhetoric is not enough. “We know our neighbor,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas responded on Twitter. “It’s not about ‘we told you so,’” he added, “it’s about how we move forward. Without fear. The Kremlin will not stop until it is pushed back and justice prevails.” Andrzej Sadoś, Poland’s ambassador to the EU, praised von der Leyen’s “speech of self-criticism” but quickly turned to what comes next. “For years, we have reiterated that Putin will not stop and his intention is to continually expand his empire,” the ambassador said in a text message. But, he added, what is “more important now is to take further steps to counter Russia’s economic and political influence in the West and root out the Russkiy Mir ideology that inspired today’s war.” On that list of further steps: More military and humanitarian aid, faster release of promised economic aid and additional sanctions on Russia. “It is also necessary to maintain the high tempo [the] Ukraine’s EU accession process,” he added. For some officials, the president’s comments underscore the need to listen to the EU’s newest members about Russia. Lithuania shares a border with Russia and was able earlier this year to completely wean itself off Russian energy – a prominent EU ambition. Pranckevičius, the Lithuanian ambassador, said his country could offer the EU an “inconvenient truth” as well as “expertise” on “how to counter Russian aggression and end our energy dependence on Russian fossil fuels”. . He expressed hope that officials could still “mobilize the political will” for more Russian sanctions, even though von der Leyen did not propose new sanctions on Wednesday. He also pointed to von der Leyen’s firm commitment during the speech: “Sanctions are here to stay.” Other eastern officials pleaded with EU leaders to heed von der Leyen’s remarks. “I hope this message will be more widely understood,” said a diplomat from an eastern EU state, before lashing out at German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. At a time when Ukraine’s military is making progress and internal criticism is roiling Russia, “some EU leaders still think it’s a good idea to have a surprise 90-minute phone call with Putin,” the diplomat added, referring to a call between Scholz and Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.

It’s not what everyone heard

But in Western Europe, von der Leyen’s message was interpreted differently—as a critique of past thinking rather than a change in future policy. “There’s a certain mea culpa to it, for sure,” said a second Western European diplomat, noting that “the emphasis was on the past.” “But I hope the most important lesson will be that the Commission — and the EU institutions more generally — must listen to everyone, all member states and not just a few big ones.” Discussing the new sanctions, an EU official was clear about what the issue is in many Western capitals: “reintroducing sanctions has a big political cost. As they may create divisions,” he said. “And [the] The population will associate difficulties here with sanctions (not true, but it’s the other side’s narrative).” Of course, this could always change. It all depends on how the war will turn out. “As the Russians withdraw, more mass graves could emerge,” said the top Western European diplomat, who saw von der Leyen’s remark as retrospective analysis. If that happens, the diplomat noted, “some measures will have to be taken.” This article is part of POLITICO Pro The one-stop solution for policy professionals who combine the depth of POLITICO journalism with the power of technology Exclusively breaking scoops and ideas Customized policy information platform A high-level public affairs network