The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has been strangely quiet, even with recent hurricanes Danielle and then Earl lingering over the open Atlantic. The contrast in the USA’s impact this season compared to the previous two seasons has been stunning. But the parade of disturbances coming out of Africa continues in the heart of hurricane season. One of them has now become the latest tropical storm.
Where is he now and where is he headed?
Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fiona is located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the western Atlantic Ocean and is moving westward. On this track, Fiona should reach the Lesser Antilles by Friday with bands of rain and gusty winds.
Current alerts and threats
Tropical storm watches have been issued for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla. This means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours or in this case by late Friday. Heavy rain is also possible in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This could lead to landslides and flooding in areas where the heaviest rain falls this weekend. Rough surf and rip currents are also possible as Fiona moved into the leeward islands this weekend.
How Much Will It Strengthen?
Tropical Storm Fiona will have to contend with two typical tropical system winds over the next few days. Some computer forecast models suggest that the system may eventually experience somewhat more wind shear as it moves further west-northwest, which could at least inhibit development for a time as it moves over the northeastern Caribbean islands. Wind shear, Satellite (Areas of cloud are shown in white. Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. Wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to develop.) Dry air is another obstacle this system can face. Dry air is ahead of its course for the next few days. This dry air is stubbornly persistent throughout much of this hurricane season. Finally, the interaction of land with the northeastern Caribbean islands could also hinder the further organization of this system. Water vapor satellite (Areas of dry air in the atmosphere are shown in orange and red in the satellite image. More moist air is shown by the brighter whites, pinks, blues and greens.) Only moderate intensification is predicted by the NHC due to the barriers mentioned above. Regardless, parts of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands may see increased rain, locally heavy rain and gusty winds Friday through the weekend.
Is this a threat to the US mainland?
It’s too early to tell if Fiona will eventually become a threat to the US mainland. One reason for this is that it is still uncertain whether the system will stay together, in part because of the barriers mentioned above. It could also curve northward into the open Atlantic next week, similar to Hurricane Earl. This can be especially true if it is held back and becomes stronger. Here are the total messages right now: -Yina Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands: Watch the forecast for changes. Increased rain and gusty winds are possible Friday through the weekend. -Bahamas, US Southeast: No need to worry at this time. It’s always a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits. Hurricane preparedness information can be found here. More from weather.com: 12 things you might not know about your hurricane forecast 7 Things Newcomers to Florida Should Know About Hurricane Season Florida peninsula’s luck from Hurricane Irma won’t last The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report breaking news about weather, the environment and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
