IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of M-class flares on the first, second and third days (September 15, September 16, September 17). IIA. Summary of Geophysical Activity 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed reached a maximum of 340 km/s on 14/1945Z. The total IMF reached 11 nT on 14/1919Z. The maximum southerly component of Bz reached -8 nT on 14/1932Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV in geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 14/0640Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV in geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15800 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on the first day (September 15), quiet to active levels on the second day (September 16), and unstable to active levels on the third day (September 17). Protons have a small chance of crossing the boundary on days one, two and three (September 15, September 16, September 17). III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 SepClass M 30/30/30Class X 05/05/05Proton 15/15/15PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm FluxObserved Sep 14 144Predicted Sep 15-Sep 17 155/150/14590 Daily Average Sep 14 123 V. Geomagnetic A indicators observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/004Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-012/015-015/01 VI. Probability of Geomagnetic Activity Sep 15-Sep 17. Medium Latitude Active 15/30/40 Minor storm 05/10/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-Severe Storm 20/30/35
