“We highly appreciate the balanced position of our Chinese friends on the Ukrainian crisis, we understand your questions and concerns on this issue, and during today’s meeting we will of course clarify all this in detail,” Putin said in his opening speech in Uzbekistan . , setting up a meeting with Xi, whom he called his “dear and long-time friend.” The Russian leader added that Russia is committed to the one-China principle and “condemned the provocations” of the United States in Taiwan. When the two leaders met in February to declare the start of their “borderless” cooperation, they also signaled the start of a new alignment of two of the world’s most powerful authoritarian states. Since then, Russia’s war against Ukraine has gone worse for Moscow than expected, with Russia facing repeated humiliating military setbacks, Putin largely shunned by Western leaders and the Russian economy battered by unprecedented sanctions. China’s Xi visits Central Asia ahead of expected meeting with Putin Their first face-to-face meeting since the start of the war – held on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Samarkand – comes at a fragile moment for both leaders, testing how limitless this friendship really is. Russian forces have suffered staggering losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. Beijing, meanwhile, is increasingly at odds with Western countries over Taiwan and human rights abuses in Xinjiang. For Putin, the meeting sends a crucial message that he remains a global player, with friends who share his authoritarian views and determination to create a new world order in which the United States no longer dominates. For Xi, his first trip abroad in nearly three years marks his diplomatic resurgence ahead of a party congress in October, when he expects to secure a record-breaking third term. “It is of course a show of mutual support and solidarity, a message primarily for the US and the West,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. However, Xi is unlikely to offer Putin more concrete support. Doing so could risk a reversal of the West that would exacerbate a growing list of domestic challenges, including a slowing Chinese economy, the property crisis and public discontent with strict “zero Covid” policies. China has maintained a delicate balance in Russia’s war against Ukraine, calling for peace while backing Russian accusations that NATO was at fault for expanding the alliance. Beijing has sought to provide moral support to Putin without directly supporting the invasion or sending economic or military aid that would bring secondary sanctions. Committed to maintaining normal trade relations with Moscow, China continued to export goods to Russia as well as import Russian oil and natural gas. Bilateral trade rose 31% for the first eight months of 2022, according to Chinese customs data. “The specific support for the war in Ukraine is implausible,” Sun said. “Military support and aid is not on the cards. China does not need to support Russia in war. except that he does not oppose it.” China is likely to continue its approach, which some analysts have called “Beijing’s sideshow,” of diplomatic support for Russia in a partnership aimed at countering a Washington-led international order while complying with Western sanctions. In recent days, however, China has signaled stronger support for Russia. Li Zhanshu, China’s third-ranking leader, visited Moscow last week and stressed that Beijing has provided “coordinated action support” to Russia as it responds to security threats “on its doorstep.” A Russian reading of the meeting said Li expressed support for the war, but the Chinese version was more subdued, saying Li said China “fully understands and supports” Russia’s security interests. Despite China’s efforts to strike a balance, Xi’s meeting with Putin will raise more questions about China’s position in the conflict. “The trip fits with Mr. Xi’s strategic vision of close ties with Moscow, but the meeting with the Russian leader may make it difficult for Xi to claim that he is somehow not enabling Russia’s aggression,” said Joseph Torrigian. , assistant professor focusing on Russia and China at American University. Rapid ground loss in Ukraine reveals a spent Russian military Going into the talks, the Kremlin described Russian-Chinese ties as “at an unprecedented high level,” saying it “attaches great importance to China’s balanced approach to the Ukrainian crisis.” The Kremlin claims Moscow and Beijing’s cooperation ensures “global and regional stability”, although Russia’s war in Ukraine has destabilized the region, creating particular uncertainties in Central Asia. “The countries jointly support the formation of a just, democratic and multipolar world order based on international law and the central role of the United Nations,” the Kremlin said in a statement. In Uzbekistan, Xi faces the added embarrassment of maintaining neutrality while attending a summit with Central Asian countries, most of which oppose the war and worry about a possible Russian incursion into their territories. Before flying to Samarkand, Xi visited Kazakhstan where he met President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in a symbolically important first stop where he appeared to send a subtle message about the Ukraine war, pledging to strongly support Kazakhstan’s efforts to protect independence , its sovereignty and territorial position. integrity, “regardless of how the international situation changes.” Russia has shown irritation with Kazakhstan’s refusal to support the war or recognize the independence of two Russian “republics” in eastern Ukraine. Like Ukraine, Kazakhstan has a fairly large Russian-speaking component, about 18 percent of the population, concentrated in the northern part of the country. With Moscow’s oft-stated historical mission to “protect” Russian-speakers around the world – one of the reasons it gave for the Ukrainian invasion – they are seen as a source of insecurity. Xi’s trips to Central Asia are part of long-term efforts to create better trade routes and connectivity through the region, an increasingly urgent task as China faces the possibility of conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea that could to prevent access to marine shipping lanes. In protest at a visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, China in August launched large-scale military exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan’s main island, triggering what became known as its Fourth Straits Crisis Taiwan. “That makes this trip quite important because Xi is essentially there on a mission to convince Central Asian leaders that having a strong relationship with China is still important. [and to] please think about our goals and what we can give you,” said Niva Yau, a senior researcher at the OSCE Academy, a foreign policy think tank in Kyrgyzstan. In Central Asia, where countries for years have had to navigate between two superpowers locked in quiet rivalry, a diminished Putin could give Beijing a chance to expand its footprint. “The saying goes that China has the deep pockets and Russia has the guns,” said Theresa Fallon, director of the Center for Russia Studies for Europe in Asia in Brussels. “The question now is, as Russia’s military footprint probably recedes in the region, will China step up?”
