Last Updated: September 15, 2022 12:07 PM ET Reading time: 4 minutes
Week 2 of NFL betting gets off to a hot start with an AFC West war on Thursday Night Football. The Los Angeles Chargers visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a divisional dance that could go a long way in deciding who comes out on top of this loaded contender group, and I’m here to narrow down the point spread, overall, and provide better picks and NFL betting predictions.
The Chiefs silenced any doubters in Week 1, crushing the Arizona Cardinals by 44 points en route to an easy road win and sweep.
Meanwhile, the Bolts looked like they were headed for a lopsided win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1, but blew a 17-3 halftime lead and cruised to a 24-19 win as a 3.5-point home favorite.
Chargers vs Chiefs best odds
Chargers vs Chiefs picks and predictions
If the total for this game is any indication, Patrick Mahomes will throw — a lot. The Chiefs quarterback threw a modest 39 passes in the lopsided win over Arizona over the weekend, completing 30 of those throws with five going for touchdowns and zero ending up as interceptions. The Cardinals secondary was stale bread on the defensive end, so the front seven brought the house, hitting the bulk of the fumbles in an attempt to upset Mahomes. All those extra rushes led to a goose egg sack for Arizona. Mahomes reduced the Cards’ man-to-man coverage, especially when Arizona had linebackers that matched KC’s speedy WRs. Enter the Chargers, with a secondary much more stingy than Arizona’s. Los Angeles’ defense performed flawlessly against the Raiders in Week 1, allowing a -0.148 EPA per drop – eighth best in its first season. The Bolts’ ball-hawking secondary also recorded three interceptions from Derek Carr. To complement those picks, LA had six sacks (and five QB knockdowns), creating that pressure despite only completing 16% of the snaps. Los Angeles got immediate results from new addition Khalil Mack, who had three sacks, along with 1.5 sacks from fellow defensive lineman Joey Bosa. With the Chargers being able to chase the QB without the need for extra passes, that allows the linebackers to drop into zone coverage, hook up anything underneath and help the secondary with defenses leaning into Cover-2 sets against Mahomes. As the pocket shrinks, Mahomes will be forced into some rushing throws, which gives Over 0.5 good value on his overall interceptions at +105. In the two matchups between the Bolts and Chiefs in 2021, Mahomes had three of his 13 interceptions on the season, including two in a Week 3 loss to Los Angeles at home — one of which was a fumbled catch and incredible dive choice by Asante. Samuel Jr. That said, this game could turn into a shootout and the Chargers’ ability to rush Mahomes with the front four and shut down those passing lanes — along with the potential return of CB JC Jackson (Brandon Staley says 50/50 ) – should stimulate. at least one odd pass from Pat that found its way into the arms of an LA defender. My Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Cuts (+105) Best Chargers vs Chiefs bonus If you sign up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 NFL season, here are two of the best bonuses available*: A) New users to FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! register now B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! register now *Eligible US locations only. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022.
Chargers vs Chiefs betting preview
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Diffusion analysis
The outlook for this Week 2 primetime game was Kansas City -3, and most books opened around that key number Sunday night. That quickly rose to Chiefs -3.5 across the division. Los Angeles will likely be without veteran back Keenan Allen, who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 1 — a tough ailment to overcome on a short week of rest. Covers NFL betting analysis
Over/Under analysis
That total opened at 54 points and has since risen to 54.5 with early Over betting. Some books are pricing Over 54.5 with added juice, which could suggest a move to 55 degrees as we approach Sunday’s start. The last time these teams met, Kansas City won 34-28 in overtime in Los Angeles on Dec. 16, 2021 — with the regulation score playing over the final total of 54.5 points in that game.
Chargers vs Chiefs game info
Chargers vs Chiefs key injuries
Chargers vs Chiefs weather
Track game conditions with live NFL weather information and learn how the weather affects NFL betting.
Chargers vs Chiefs betting trend you need to know
The Chargers are especially profitable as road underdogs, going 14-6-3 ATS in that role over the past five seasons, including a 3-1 ATS as road pups in 2021. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Chiefs.
