The first drilling permits in nearly three years are expected to be issued as early as next week, sources said, in a move that will reignite claims of yet another broken Conservative 2019 manifesto pledge. Amid fears of spiraling energy bills, the new prime minister announced last week that she would “end the moratorium on mining the vast shale reserves”, which has been in place across England since November 2019. A long-awaited report by the British Geological Survey (BGS) was promised to be published, but has been delayed due to the Queen’s death. The report, seen by the Guardian, admits that predicting fracking-induced earthquakes and their magnitude “remains a scientific challenge”. He says there are still “significant existing knowledge gaps” and that there are still problems identifying potential new fracking sites that might be able to handle 3.0-magnitude earthquakes. Existing rules require drilling to stop if vibrations of 0.5 or more are caused. But fracking companies are reportedly pushing for it to increase significantly. Kwasi Kwarteng, the former business secretary who is now chancellor, asked the BGS in April to look at new techniques to help reduce the risk and magnitude of earthquakes, and whether locations outside Lancashire could be better suited for drilling. In its report, the BGS offers little evidence that enough progress has been made since the fracking ban to fulfill a 2019 manifesto promise that it would only go ahead if “the science shows unequivocally that it can be done safely”. A fracking rig under construction at Westby-with-Plumptons in the Fylde. Photo: MediaWorldImages/Alamy The limited number of fracking sites in the UK “makes it impossible to determine with statistical significance” rates of “induced seismicity” and means it is “difficult to make a valid comparison” with other countries, the report said. It cites research from the US and Canada that found 1% of fracking wells were linked to earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 3.0, but in some areas this rose to 30%. While modeling in the US helped identify faults most likely to fracture during drilling, the report says enough information was only available in a few areas and “more data is needed in other basins in the UK” to “apply more. largely”. Since other industries are allowed to generate higher-magnitude earthquakes than fracking, the BGS says “consistent risk targets” could be useful “for all energy-related industries that present a risk of induced earthquakes”. Greenpeace said it was clear that “there have been no significant breakthroughs in the science of predicting and managing earthquakes caused by fracking”. The charity’s chief scientist, Dr Doug Parr, said: “For the Truss government to reverse its position on shale gas would simply be breaking a clear promise on which they were elected.” Making estimates of peak sizes before and during drilling “also remains a challenge”, according to the BGS. Attempts at Preston New Road, where drilling was abandoned, “show some promise” but “provide estimates that are lower than the maximum observed magnitude,” the report added. Fracking has proved particularly controversial in Lancashire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Yorkshire, and there remains some concern around Sussex following widespread protests against a drilling attempt at Balcombe a decade ago. There is also thought to be a split over Truss’ new cabinet – which will not include Conservative peer Zac Goldsmith, who was sacked as environment secretary – raising further fears about Truss’ commitment to tackling climate change. Kwarteng wrote in his letter to the BGS that fracking was “not the answer to short-term price issues”, while Jacob Rees-Mogg, who replaced him as business secretary, earlier this year called shale gas “very clean”. and dismissed concerns about seismic tremors. Other senior Tories have tried to put pressure on the government by calling the fracking ban “unconservative”. More than 30 MPs and peers, including former minister David Frost, wrote to Boris Johnson in February saying that drilling for shale gas would be a reliable source of energy and bring investment to the UK. The go-ahead for fracking companies to begin the exploratory drilling process could come as early as next week, after the official period of mourning for the Queen ends. The government claims natural gas could start flowing in less than six months, but experts say it will take years, is far less accessible than once thought and would do little to reduce energy bills. There are already 93 exploratory drilling permits granted for 159 areas of the country, 75% of which are fracking-related, which will be automatically reactivated once the fracking moratorium is lifted. Areas that could see drilling stretch from Sussex, Surrey and Dorset, to the Midlands, Yorkshire, Cheshire and Lancashire. Companies must seek planning permission to start drilling. However, the Guardian revealed this year that only a handful of MPs would support fracking in their area. A government spokesman said the inquiry was commissioned to “advise on the latest scientific evidence on shale gas extraction” and said any suggestion the BGS was asked to justify fracking was “provably untrue” as the review had “clear, publicly available terms of reference”. The spokesman added: “Taking advantage of our own natural gas resources makes us less dependent on imports and helps maintain the security of the UK’s energy supply in both the short and long term. Drawing lessons from around the world, we will make sure it is done as safely as possible and where there is local support.”
