And that was really reasonable. Abortion is a complicated issue in the polls, and the vast majority of Americans are not legal experts. It seemed likely that the reality of a country without Roe — that is, a statewide patchwork of abortion restrictions and protections — it can change people’s attitudes about overturning it and making a decision to do so less unpopular. But this overall shift has not happened. Almost three months later after the Supreme Court overturned Roe, this move remains as unpopular as polls have long suggested. indeed, this appears to be one of the most unpopular court decisions in modern history. Despite Republicans touting the idea of sending the issue “back to the states,” Americans still oppose overturning Roe by a margin of roughly 2 to 1. And crucially, they remain staunchly opposed, even when told that the court’s decision means states can now decide the matter for themselves. Interestingly, however, this is not because opinions have not changed at all. Republicans I have turned against Roe more than spring. A Fox News poll in May published the day Justice Samuel Alito’s draft opinion Dobbs vs. Jackson leaked showed only 38 percent of Republicans wanted Roe overturned. But every poll since then shows a majority of Republicans support what the court did — including 56 percent in a poll released late Wednesday. Perhaps this reflects a better understanding of the implications of his overthrow, or perhaps it is partly due to a political rallying effect. That leaves nearly 4 in 10 Republicans (38 percent) who oppose the decision — in a party that overwhelmingly opposes abortion rights. And the surge in support on the GOP side was offset by a shift against him Dobbs vs. Jackson opinion among other Americans. In May, 64 percent of independents said they didn’t want to Roe overturned; Today, 72 percent disapprove of what the court did. Similarly, Democrats have become slightly more opposed to what the Supreme Court did—from 77% who want the original Roe decision to submit in May to 83 percent who disapprove of today’s court decision. Overall, the Fox poll shows Americans disapproving by a margin of 63 percent to 32 percent — exactly on par with polls taken both before and after the decision in Dobbs at the end of June. Other polls show a similarly lopsided split: A Quinnipiac University poll two weeks ago showed Americans disapproving 61-34. And a Kaiser Family Foundation poll in July showed a 65-34 margin. The numbers look slightly better for Republicans and the court when the question comes with language about states setting their own policies. An NBC News poll recently asked about the turnaround Roe and stated that, “each individual state will now decide whether and under what circumstances to allow abortion.” But Americans still opposed it by a 58-38 margin, and a majority — 51 percent — strongly opposed it. This latest poll suggests efforts by Republicans to emphasize that context could matter on the fringes, but not in a way that makes the decision nearly popular. And three months later, those efforts really haven’t registered in the overall numbers. Part of that could be because the decision has rallied support for abortion rights. there is some evidence for this. Again, the Fox poll is instructive: it shows that 57 percent of Americans say abortion should be legal either all or most of the time — the highest number in years. (It hadn’t reached 52 percent this year.) It’s also possible that, however many are fine with the idea of sending the issue back to the states theoretically, seeing what that means in practice — that is, restrictive bans in many states, sometimes with very limited or no exceptions — is another matter entirely. Polls have long shown even an overwhelming majority of Republicans want exemptions for situations like rape and incest. Whatever the reasons, the wishful thinking that an unpopular Supreme Court decision could eventually be reduced has not panned out. And Republicans can’t seem to drive any kind of message that might mitigate what appears to be a pretty big political liability.
