Last Updated: September 15, 2022 7:06 PM ET Reading time: 4 minutes
The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs will have a quick turnaround as the two best teams in the AFC West battle it out on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 2. Keenan Allen appears to be banned but is still worth having in the LA passing game, while punters should look to the Chargers secondary for tackle opportunities as the Kansas City offense is unstoppable. Here are my free NFL player picks for the Thursday Night Football game between the Chargers and Chiefs.

Chargers vs Chiefs bracket picks

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Chargers vs Chiefs TNF props

Tyreek who?

In his first game as a Chief, JuJu Smith-Schuster caught six balls for 79 yards on eight targets – all in the first half. He did twice but the Chiefs were in control in the second half and didn’t need much from anyone. He saw 46 snaps, which was just five off the team lead (Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 51) and two more than Travis Kelce. The former Steeler led all Kansas City receivers with a 20.5 percent target share and nearly doubled Valdez-Scantling’s yards per reception. Patrick Mahomes spent a lot of time in the preseason working out with his new receivers and it showed on Sunday. If the Chargers can keep this Kansas City offense going, Smith-Schuster’s Over 53.5 receiving yards haven’t adjusted enough to match this approach. His receiving yards total was 47.5 yards last week. Last week, the Chargers allowed nine passes of 15 or more yards and struggled to slow down heavily targeted Davante Adams (17 targets, 141 yards). This is a Pro-Bowl receiver who had 111 catches for over 1,4000 yards with Pittsburgh before his quarterback hand wore out. If Smith-Schuster goes out in Week 2 against a Chargers team whose QB has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards in the last three meetings, that receiving yardage total won’t be in the 50s again. He could finish in the Top-12 in receiving yards by the end of the season. JuJu Smith-Schuster Prop: Over 53.5 receiving yards (-101 at Caesars)

Increased download opportunities

Even without Keenen Allen, Justin Herbert has a great matchup against the Kansas City secondary. The Chiefs entered the season without Tyrann Mathieu, who was a top safety last season, and now outside linebacker Trent McDuffie appears questionable after being ruled out last week. He played 32 snaps before the injury. Herbert entered Arrowhead a season ago and threw for four touchdowns and 281 yards passing. With Mike Williams likely getting the spotlight and coming off a two-catch performance in Week 1, Austin Ekeler will be a huge part of the Chargers’ game on Thursday. Ekeler was 6 of 6 for 52 yards and a score in the last meeting and had four sacks Sunday despite the positive playbook. Also helping us support the RB is Kansas City’s pass rush which generated a lot of pressure last week (88.6%). Kyler Murray struggled looking down field against the Chiefs and had just three carries of 20 or more yards, averaging just 3.0 air yards per attempt. With Allen gone, Williams spreading the field and KC’s defense starting to generate pressure, I’m betting Eckler will be involved more than usual, especially on the short week. In his six games against KC with Herbert under center, Ekeler is averaging 7.3 targets and 6.2 catches for 52.3 receiving yards per game.
The books have adjusted Ekeler’s total receiving yards by five yards, but with Allen’s injury and the potential for a pass-heavy game scenario, that’s not enough. Ekeler finished with 33 receiving yards last week, but he also played with the lead most of the game and Herbert spread it around his targets. I like both that game and the over 95.5 yards he runs and receives as he will likely be the focal point of the offense. Austin Ekeler Prop: Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114) Covers NFL betting analysis

Hitting the D markets

Budda Baker finished with 20 total tackles in Week 1 against the Chiefs, who ran 66 plays while picking up 33 (!) first downs. Now, it will be safety Nasir Adderley’s turn to slow down this KC offense which will provide plenty of tackling opportunities. The free safety had just four total tackles last week, but the Las Vegas offense was nonexistent in the first half. He played 100% of the snaps in that game and enters TNF with just 5.5 total tackles + assists. He finished with 10 total tackles in the last meeting in Kansas City last year and had seven or more total tackles in 10 of his 15 games. Adderley grades out in run defense and pass rush while not being the best coverage safety on the team, which is great for tackles. Also, with Mahomes targeting his tight ends 12 times on 39 passes in Week 1, Adderley may have even more tackle opportunities if the Chargers go to man coverage. With an offense that moved the ball with ease last week, the Chiefs create more tackle opportunities than other teams, and without JC Jackson, that’s a secondary that will allow more completions, which means more tackles for the likes of Adderley. Nasir Adderley Prop: Over 5.5 tackles plus assists (-120)