The surprise success of Ukrainian forces in areas of the country captured by Russian troops over the weekend brought euphoria to Ukrainians battered by months of fighting. It also fueled the hopes of many of Kiev’s foreign backers that its underpowered military could oust Russia’s larger, better-armed force. President Volodymyr Zelensky, raising his country’s blue-and-yellow flag on Wednesday over the liberated city of Izyum, vowed that it would be “definitely impossible to understand our people, the Ukrainian people.” Officials in Kyiv said the forces had retaken about 3,000 square kilometers in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. Meanwhile, Russia’s defense ministry described the disorderly withdrawal of its forces as a tactical “regroupment”. US officials, providing a calm check on Ukrainian exuberance, said that while Ukraine’s troops had performed better in offensive operations than even their American backers expected, those forces would face a period of heavy fighting ahead of winter as part of it. they expect it to be a “non-linear” trajectory for war. A senior State Department official, who like other officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal planning, said Thursday that while Ukrainian forces have proven they can reverse advances made by Russia after the invasion of President Vladimir Putin on February 24, Russia has maintained a strong power. “They have significant equipment and weapons and ammunition placed in the occupied territories, not to mention what they have in Russia,” the official said. “And so it’s far from over, despite the momentum.” These expectations are based on a US strategy to try to contain international support and gradually expand US military aid without the immediate infusion of heavier weapons that could trigger a wider war. The advances in Izyum and other areas – which allowed shocked local residents to come out of their homes, sharing stories of occupation and abuse – were all the more encouraging after Ukrainian setbacks, including the withdrawal from the city of Lysychansk in July. After weekend advances around Kherson, Russia struck power plants and other infrastructure, demonstrating its willingness to strike civilian targets in an attempt to weaken Ukraine’s resolve. U.S. officials expect heavy fighting for the rest of the fall as both sides try to put themselves in the best possible position before the onset of winter makes transportation and fighting difficult. Russian forces still control huge swaths of Ukraine — including the cities of Kherson, Melitopol, Mariupol and Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014 — and U.S. officials expect Putin may use the colder months to make up for the army he spent, disillusioned before launching a new campaign in the spring. Putin has remained defiant, threatening to cut gas supplies to Europe even as hints of public dissent raise questions about how long he can hold Russia back from what the Kremlin has called its “special military operation.” Pentagon officials have said they are looking for ways to help Ukraine’s evolving defense needs, focusing on areas such as air defense, surveillance and fighter capability. So far, total US security assistance to Ukraine has been around $15 billion since the Russian invasion. Despite Ukraine’s continued calls for new, more sophisticated military hardware, U.S. officials do not plan to immediately expand the array of weapons they provide, which includes high-mobility artillery missile systems armed with medium-range multiple launch guided missile systems. So far, officials have stopped short of approving much longer-range systems, including the Army’s tactical missile systems. Russia’s Foreign Ministry illustrated the stakes of such decisions on Thursday when it warned that supplying Ukraine with longer-range missiles would cross a red line for Russia and make nations provide them with a “party to the conflict”, reinforcing earlier suggestions that Russia could strike NATO. if they allowed shipments of more powerful weapons. Russia’s setback in Kharkiv has sparked speculation over whether Putin would be forced to resort to a general mobilization to fuel his war – a possibility the Kremlin has so far dismissed – or even use nuclear as Russia trying to compensate for her loss. Samuel Charap, a Russia expert at the Rand Corp., said the success of the counteroffensive shaped the momentum around the conflict, partly illustrating Ukraine’s ability to successfully conduct full offensive operations. “We didn’t have evidence of this before,” Charap said. “That very fact is likely to discourage them from seeking compromises because they think they can do more than that.” To date, U.S. strategy has been partly informed by what U.S. officials see as the remoteness of any potential negotiations to end the fighting. A flurry of attempts to start meaningful talks early in the fighting failed as each side took a harder line. “Right now the Ukrainians don’t have a viable map from which to negotiate. Twenty percent of their territory is gone. something like 30 percent of their industrial and agricultural potential has been lost,” a senior State Department official said last week. “That’s why we support this counterattack.” US officials expect it would be difficult for Zelensky to negotiate a settlement even if he wanted to, since Russian abuses have hardened public opinion against possible concessions to Moscow’s war aims. In addition, officials say, Russia remains an unreliable negotiating partner and Putin’s war aims have changed repeatedly as the tactical situation has evolved. The U.S. goal remains to help Ukraine make battlefield advances that will strengthen its bargaining position should final negotiations with Russia take place. The current moment draws attention to a tension underlying America’s strategy for the war, as officials pour massive military support into Ukraine, fueling a war with global consequences, while trying to remain agnostic about when and how Kyiv might conclude agreement to terminate it. President Biden has pledged to support Ukraine in its pursuit of independence and sovereignty, pledging in an opinion piece this spring to do so without pressuring Kyiv to make territorial concessions. However, he did not explicitly support the goal of recovering all territory held by Russia, including areas occupied or contested since 2014. The first senior State Department official said another key part of the Biden administration’s plan to move the conflict toward a settlement is its efforts to weaken Russia’s economic and technological advantage through sanctions and other means. “But telling a sovereign country what success looks like for them or what a negotiated settlement looks like, that’s just not where we want to be,” the official said. So far, U.S. officials appear to have followed through on that commitment, taking an approach that marks a stark contrast to U.S. actions in places where officials have at times taken a much more expansive approach to dealing with foreign leaders backed by U.S. aid. . “For both political and strategic reasons, they’re not interested in drawing lines on the map, and I think they’re absolutely justified in that reluctance,” Daniel Fried, a veteran diplomat who served as the U.S. ambassador to Poland, said this week. Biden will try to bolster international support for Ukraine’s self-defense at the United Nations next week, using the annual General Assembly meetings as an opportunity to iron out frictions caused by global inflation and war-related food insecurity. Especially the resolve of European nations, which have been among Ukraine’s biggest supporters, will be tested this winter by high energy prices. But experts, including Alexander Vershbow, who served as the US ambassador to Russia and NATO’s deputy secretary general, say the tension could eventually come to a head, for example if Ukraine is faced with a choice between settling in territories it controlled before February 24 and embrace a larger conflict with the goal of recapturing all areas under Russian control since 2014. “The Ukrainians are adamant right now that they would say we will not give an inch, but at some point hard choices will be needed,” Vershbow said Thursday. Right now, however, “the administration doesn’t want to take a position.” Fried said the Biden administration was right to approach the coming months with caution, but said Ukraine is different from other recent U.S. conflicts. “We have been so wounded by our failures in Afghanistan and, in part, in Iraq. This is a situation where real success is possible — not inevitable — and not far off,” Fried said. “Leaning in that perspective is in our national interest.” , Dan Lamothe and Alex Horton contributed to this report.
War in Ukraine: What you need to know
The last: Grain shipments from Ukraine are being accelerated under the agreement reached by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations in July. Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports had sent food prices skyrocketing and raised fears of more famine in the Middle East and Africa. At least 18 ships, including cargoes of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, have departed. The battle: The conflict on the ground continues as Russia uses its heavy artillery advantage to pound Ukrainian forces, which have at times managed to put up stiff resistance. In the south, Ukraine’s hopes rest on the liberation of the Russian-occupied Kherson region, and eventually Crimea, which was seized by…
