Coefficient Afp | Afp | Getty Images Ukraine’s relations with Germany have soured this week, with Kyiv questioning why Berlin reneged on its promise to provide heavy weaponry. Tensions over Germany’s provision of Leopard tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine — or the lack thereof — peaked this week when Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba publicly questioned why Berlin was backtracking on its pledge to send those weapons in Ukraine. “Disappointing messages from Germany, while Ukraine now needs Leopards and Marders — to free people and save them from genocide,” Kuleba said on Twitter, adding that “there is not a single logical argument why these weapons cannot be surrendered, only abstract fears. and excuses”. “What does Berlin fear and what does Kyiv not fear?” he added. The Marder is a German infantry fighting vehicle designed to be used alongside Leopard tanks in combat. Kuleba’s comments came as Ukraine launched counterattacks against Russian forces in both the south and northeast of the country. Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the northeastern region of Kharkiv has been hailed as a major success, with Russian forces pulling out of towns and villages across the region, almost completely seizing it. A new Leopard 2 A7V heavy battle tank of the Bundeswehr’s 9th Panzer Training Brigade stands during a visit by German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht to the Bundeswehr’s army training grounds on February 7, 2022 in Munster, Germany. Sean Gallup | News Getty Images | Getty Images Ukraine relies heavily on Western weapon systems to fight Russian forces. And its allies in the West, NATO members in effect, have individually sent Ukraine a vast array of military hardware. In April, Germany promised to give Leopard and Marders tanks to Ukraine. Instead of handing them over directly, he suggested a barter system. The intention was that NATO members, Poland or Slovakia for example, could send older Soviet-era tanks (such as Leopard 1s) to Ukraine, and Germany would then replenish their stocks with its own. more modern equivalent weapons (such as the Leopard 2); Germany justified the proposal to send older weapons by saying Ukraine’s forces were used to Soviet-era weapons and should only provide weapons they know how to use. The only problem with the plan is that this arms exchange has largely failed, and Germany is now facing a backlash from critics, both inside Germany and abroad — and above all, from a frustrated Ukraine. One of the arguments is that they’re afraid of further escalation — but that’s an invalid argument because it’s like, escalation to what? It’s bad enough as it is. Yuri Sak Ukrainian Defense Ministry official Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, told CNBC on Wednesday that Kyiv does not understand Berlin’s reluctance to send it weapons that could prove decisive on the battlefield. “It’s hard to read their minds, but Germany’s words, over the last seven months on many occasions, have not matched their actions. And that’s disappointing because there was a moment when they made that commitment that we would provide Ukraine with these tanks, it was a moment of hope and promise that we’ve been waiting for,” he noted. “If they are afraid of some nuclear strikes or some other attacks on the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia, which could lead to a great tragedy, that’s another story, but in terms of the situation on the battlefield, we don’t understand the logic behind it. They could to be some internal political games”, he noted.
Kyiv wants weapons, Germany has them
Ukraine’s need for more weapons comes as the war enters a final phase in which the balance is shifting in Kiev’s favor. Russia appeared caught off guard by Ukraine’s latest counterattacks, having redeployed some of its most effective combat units to southern Ukraine after Kyiv signaled in the summer that it would launch a counteroffensive to retake Kherson. After a brief period of stunned silence prompted by Ukraine’s rapid victories and advances in the northeast, Russian forces began to respond to those victories by launching an intense series of attacks on energy infrastructure in the northeast, as well as on missile strikes in the south. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Ukraine’s international allies to continue sending weapons to Ukraine, saying this is the time it needs them most to maintain momentum. And it’s weapons like Germany’s Leopard tanks and Marder infantry fighting vehicles that Ukraine says could change the balance of the war forever. Among Ukraine’s NATO allies, Germany – the self-proclaimed “leader of Europe” – has drawn criticism and even derision for its military aid to Ukraine. Shortly before Russia launched its invasion on February 24, Germany’s proposal to send thousands of helmets to Ukraine was met with derision. Analysts say the criticism is not entirely deserved, however, noting that after the US and the UK, Germany has been one of Ukraine’s biggest arms donors. Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans run a Dutch open-source defense intelligence analysis website and maintain a list of weapons that Germany has delivered to Ukraine. They note on their website that, to date, these deliveries include a number of Gepard SPAAGs (self-propelled anti-aircraft guns), man-portable air defense systems (known as MANPADS, they are portable surface-to-air missiles), howitzers and anti-tank weapons, as well as hundreds of vehicles and millions of cartridges. The German government also released a list of military equipment it sent to Ukraine, up to 125 pairs of binoculars it donated. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz looks at damage as he visits French President Emmanuel Macron, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi as Russia’s offensive on Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine, June 16, 2022. Viacheslav Ratynskyi | Reuters But when it comes to German tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, Germany has apparently stalled, with no decision on the procurement of such material, let alone deliveries, despite Ukraine’s specific requests from Kuleba and other officials since March. Analysts say Germany’s good intentions just haven’t paid off. “Germany… tried to entice other countries to send their heavy weaponry to Ukraine in a program known as the ‘Ringtausch’ (“exchange”). Under this policy, countries can receive German weaponry for free in exchange for delivery of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from their own stocks to Ukraine,” Mitzer and Oliemans noted in an article in early September. “Although a promising plan at the outset, the ‘Ringtausch’ program has largely failed to live up to expectations, as most countries expect to replace their Soviet-era systems with a greater number of modern weapon systems than Berlin has today able (or willing) to offer,” they noted.
What does Germany say?
Pressure is mounting on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to make a decision on sending such weapons to Ukraine, but there appears to be reluctance at the top to make such a decision. On Monday, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said sending more heavy weapons to Ukraine was “not so simple.” “It’s not that simple to just say: I’m just going to risk that we won’t be able to act, the defense of the country, by conceding everything. No, I won’t,” he said. “But we have other possibilities, from industry, with our partners,” Deutsche Welle reported. CNBC reached out to the German defense ministry for further comment and a response to Kouleba’s comments, and has yet to hear back. Chancellor Scholz defended Germany’s record on arms deliveries on Wednesday, however, telling reporters that “it can be said that the very weapons that Germany has now given to Ukraine are instrumental in the development of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and have also made a difference’ in battle. Germany’s reticence about certain arms deliveries has prompted some critics to look for ulterior motives for its reluctance, with some even suggesting that Germany does not like the idea of German tanks facing Russian tanks on the battlefield, as they did in World War II. “We have no alternative. This is about our independence, about our future, about the fate of the entire Ukrainian people,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (pictured here on June 16) said. Ludovic Marin | Reuters Raphael Los, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told CNBC on Wednesday that the German government has given various explanations for not sending the weapons. “The German government itself has given explanations as to why not to, essentially, since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine and even before that. We have heard concerns about the possibility of escalation, that Russia might see the transportation of such weapons as some kind of red line.” “We see concerns, mainly from the SPD (Social Democratic Party of Scholz) about the images that German Leopard tanks going toe-to-toe with Russian tanks in Ukraine might produce. And we’ve also heard arguments in the past about the tight timetable as The reason for sending the Soviet-made material first. I think that’s a reasonable argument. But it only lasts so long,” he said. “At some point, Ukraine — and the countries that will be able to support Ukraine with these kinds of systems — will run out of them and you won’t be able to replace them as easily. So at some point, you have to start thinking about Western supply chains based on Western systems’. Loss is characterized by…
