Russian President Vladimir Putin had high hopes for the invasion of his western neighbor earlier this year — it was to bring all of Ukraine back into Russia’s fold. was to extend Russia’s influence throughout Eastern and Central Europe. it was to break, if not force, the collapse of NATO.
In short, the Russian president was going to recover everything Russia had lost when the Soviet Union collapsed and reverse what he saw as “the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century.” But Putin’s hopes have been brutally dashed, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may well turn out to be the biggest geopolitical disaster of the 21st century — at least as far as Russia is concerned. Far from seizing Ukraine in a matter of weeks, Russia is now clearly on the defensive. Ukraine has recaptured more than 60,000 square kilometers of territory seized by Russia in the first weeks of the invasion. Russian soldiers are on the run, their commanders are disorganized, and the army is now supplied by stockpiles of ammunition sold by North Korea. The biggest strategic failure, however, is Russia’s declining influence across Europe and the rebirth of transatlantic solidarity through a strengthened and more unified NATO, which Putin himself has unwittingly promoted. Far from splitting, NATO and the West as a whole responded to the war with remarkable unity of effort. Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world. And while Moscow may still hope to use Europe’s dependence on Russian gas as a weapon to force appeasement, it increasingly looks like alternative supply sources and conservation measures will pass the continent in all but the harshest winters. . Meanwhile, attitudes toward Russia have changed dramatically, underscoring strong and unified opposition to Moscow and its policies. This change is perhaps most noticeable in the US, where a new survey published by the Chicago Council on World Affairs shows strong support for Europe and NATO. For all the talk in Washington and elsewhere about an American pivot to Asia, Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has driven Americans back to Europe. When asked which region they believe is most important to the future of US military security, 50% said Europe — compared to 21% for Asia and 19% for the Middle East. Just two years ago, 16% of Americans saw Europe as most important to US security, compared to 61% for the Middle East.
The importance of Europe to Americans is also underscored by their view of NATO. In fact, the American public is now more committed to the Atlantic Alliance than at any time since our poll began nearly 50 years ago. Four in five Americans now want to either maintain (62%) or increase (19%) the US commitment to NATO. And while Democrats are more engaged (at 90%), so are three-quarters of Republicans and Independents. Since the beginning of this year, US President Joe Biden’s administration has significantly increased its commitment to NATO, deploying about 25 percent more troops, aircraft, motorized vehicles and naval vessels, many much further east.
Americans strongly favor such a long-term presence in Europe, with two in three supporting long-term bases in Germany (68 percent), the Baltic states (65 percent) and Poland (62 percent). In the case of Germany and Poland, these numbers are up almost 60 percent compared to a decade ago. Equally important is the fact that US support for NATO enlargement is as strong as ever. This, despite – or perhaps because of – Moscow blaming NATO’s decision to bring Central and Eastern European countries into its mill for instability in Europe, as well as its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow’s actions even convinced Finland and Sweden to ditch their long-standing pledges of neutrality and apply to join NATO, with the Alliance’s leaders calling on both countries to join last June and the US Senate to vote 95-1 to approve their entry last month. Three-quarters of Americans polled support Finland and Sweden joining NATO, committing the US to defend countries that, in Finland’s case, share a 1,400km land border with Russia. Most notably, 73 percent of Americans would favor Ukraine joining NATO, and a staggering four in 10 favor sending U.S. troops to defend Ukraine today — even though Biden and NATO leaders have ruled it out specifically. With US support for NATO and European security at an all-time high, many may wonder how sustainable this support will be in the long term. Few in NATO have forgotten the stories under the previous administration in which former President Donald Trump repeatedly blamed the Alliance, even threatening to withdraw the US from NATO. Of course, no one knows what might happen in 2024, let alone if Trump were to be re-elected. But public opinion tends to be much less fickle than many assume. Indeed, support for NATO among Americans has grown steadily over the past decade — though less so among Republicans. It’s one of the few issues that large majorities, on both sides of the aisle, can agree on — not just now, but when Trump was in office. Russia’s actions only strengthened American support for NATO. It helped strengthen and unify the military alliance itself – hardly the result Putin was aiming for.