The stunning counterattack by Ukrainian forces forced Russian troops out of occupied territories, prompting questions about Russia’s strategy on the airwaves of state television, usually under Putin’s thumb.
Local lawmakers in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg called for his removal from office, while Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close Putin ally, called Russia’s retreat this week “amazing.” Russian experts say all this leaves Putin at the center of a self-created political quagmire that threatens his popularity and, in the long run, likely his political survival.
The odds of Putin losing power are higher than ever, though still “not a very high number,” said Timothy Fry, a political science professor at Columbia University who wrote “Weak Strongman: The Limits of Power in Putin’s Russia”. “Putin risked the most important achievement of his 20 years in power by going to war in Ukraine. And that was a sense of returning to stability,” Frye said. “And the expectation was that the war would be over in a week – that would be seen as an easy victory and that stability would not be compromised. And now, it clearly has.” Putin, who has refused to label the conflict in Ukraine a war even after tens of thousands have died, has few attractive options going forward. This raises the possibility that his “special military operation” in Ukraine will last. “Putin, for all his macho persona, is not good at making tough decisions,” said Mark Galeotti, a London-based lecturer on Russian security and author of the forthcoming book “Putin’s War.” “When he doesn’t see a good answer, he tends to get paralyzed. And right now he doesn’t really have any good options.” Putin has avoided enacting a plan to shore up Russian forces, fearing it would hurt him domestically. Suing for peace, Galeotti said, would also be politically disastrous. “So he’ll probably get confused and basically hope that either Ukraine self-destructs or the West loses interest in supporting it,” he said.
This has been Russia’s hope and Ukraine’s terror in the past, but it seems more unlikely than ever right now. Ukraine’s gains around Kharkiv have bolstered Kyiv and Western support for its resistance. Anne Applebaum, a Russian historian and journalist, argued this week in The Atlantic that Ukraine’s release of some 6,000 square kilometers of occupied territory is a preparation for Ukraine’s victory and possibly the fall of Putin.
On state television this week, interviewers debated why the “special military operation” failed – generally blaming the military generals who advised Putin – while presenters officially reported it was the toughest week of the war so far.
“That in itself was kind of revealing and, wow, I didn’t expect that in this kind of fantasy world they have over there,” said Mark Schrad, who directs Russian Regional Studies in Villanova University’s Department of Political Science. .
However, Schradd argued in a Foreign Policy op-ed this week that predictions of Putin’s downfall were premature. He noted that Western predictions of Putin’s imminent ouster have come and gone throughout his tenure — and that while the war in Ukraine poses unprecedented risks, Putin has taken unprecedented measures to maintain control and silence dissent. “I could be wrong, but I don’t think it’s existential,” he said of the challenges Putin faces if losses in Ukraine continue. “I think it would be a shame, you know, for sure. And it certainly wouldn’t be good for his popularity.” “But the idea that, you know, the kind of exuberance that we’re seeing, that in the short term it’s necessarily going to translate into a kind of immediate policy change, that’s where I would kind of put the brakes on, you know, to try not to get too far ahead of our skis,” he added.
Even if Putin takes a deep and lasting hit to his popularity over the war in Ukraine — among the masses or in elite circles — it doesn’t necessarily mean political doom for him, Fry said.
“People often confuse leaders who become weaker in their ability to achieve their goals with the possibility of losing office. And these two things are often different. And discontent among elites among the masses does not necessarily lead to action,” Fry said.
“I think that’s the most likely situation going forward, given the current trajectory of the war, that for now, Putin’s position is not in jeopardy, but his ability to get the public to go along with the things he wants to do and persuading the elites to sacrifice their own interests to serve Putin’s agenda, that will be much more difficult.” Instability is increasingly felt throughout Russia’s society and economy. Bloomberg this month cited an internal Kremlin document that projects the Russian economy will shrink by as much as 10 percent in the coming years, compared to 2021 levels, and likely return to pre-war levels near the end of the decade.
And while there is little public opinion polling on Putin’s war, Russians have consistently shown a negative attitude toward sending troops to foreign conflicts, Fry noted. But the most significant threat to Putin is the loss of elite support — in the security services, the private sector and regional power brokers — said Chris Miller, an associate professor at Tufts University who specializes in Russian history. Right now, Putin is seeking to strike a balance between the hawks who want to see him double down on Ukraine, and the doves, who would like to see movement toward a peace settlement.
“He’s looking at a middle ground and I think we should expect the elites to give him the benefit of the doubt going forward for the next few months,” Miller said. “The war is not going as well as they expected. But it’s manageable for the next couple of months, and aside from those who want to escalate, there aren’t many other great ideas coming out of Russia’s policy-making process about what to do differently that would work better from the perspective of Russia’s goals. government in Ukraine.” How US weapons and intelligence helped Russia destroy Ukraine The Memo: Britain grapples with its future after Queen Elizabeth’s death Putin also benefits from the lack of an obvious successor. And he has also proven adept at playing elites against each other, using a range of tools to keep rebellious elements in check – from punishing officials who deviate from his policy to the very real fears of business elites that they might find a mysterious death, he added.
Miller also noted that views on the war—both inside and outside Russia—were very different just two months ago, when Russia was steadily gaining ground in Ukraine.
“I think the lesson of this war and the lesson of many other wars is that there are many twists and turns,” he said. “Momentum over the course of the seven months has changed several times already, and we shouldn’t be surprised if it changes again.”