Arthur Smith has a strangely tumultuous relationship with the media, but I think he’s completed the development of a Week 1 player. Kyle Pitts lined up wide on 25.7% of his routes. I know everyone has hot opinions about how good Pitts could be as a legit X receiver, but he’s very difficult. We want him to run routes against linebackers and safeties. There are real mismatches there. I fully believe that Pitts was used so much last year out of necessity because the Falcons had no legitimate outside receiver options. But I should be clear, I also have my own agenda here. Regardless, its more substantial use is good for its fantastic visuals. Pitch got over the block (20% of passes) a little more than we want in Week 1, but remains solid in the passing game. He inhaled 33% of the team’s airways. Soon he will have monster games. Drake London is the reason the Falcons don’t have to deal as much at outside receiver with Pitts this year. The rookie stepped right into the NFL field and looked like he belonged after getting very little practice time in the last month following a preseason injury. London had a long queue on 90.6% of routes. He can win as a legit outside X-receiver. He handled 31% of the team’s snaps and the results were solid as well, with 74 yards on five catches. London is one of my favorite markets right now and I think he has a path to producing top 20 receivers on a regular basis as his rookie year continues. He’s just a very good player. Drake London could emerge as a reliable fantasy option. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) A funnel goal tree between Pitts and London is exactly what we signed up for in Atlanta. Marcus Mariota obviously isn’t a long-term answer, but he can feed those guys underneath to pile up catches. Finally, it’s clear that 2021 was no fluke and Arthur Smith has clearly figured out how to best develop Cordarrelle Patterson. He was awesome week 1. The story continues He was right up there among the league leaders in running back touches and earned a first down on 45.5% of his hurries. The Falcons were punishing as a rushing team and the Saints have historically been a tough outing for running backs. It would probably be best for another running back on this roster to step up and stay healthy to take some of the grind he carries from Patterson to keep him fresh. Still, Patterson looks like a true NFL running back, and as long as the Falcons’ offense remains afloat, he’ll go down as one of the most underrated players of this fantasy draft season.
A glimmer of hope for cowboys?
I wanted to share this because it’s a good reminder that when Cooper Rush left for Dallas last year, not all the air was out of the balloon. That said, this ecosystem is dramatically worse than the one the Cowboys rolled out last year. Rush was still aggressive when he took the field last Sunday, leading all quarterbacks in average shooting depth. So maybe we can get some steps going in CeeDee Lamb’s direction. To be clear, things are still pretty bleak, but it’s worth noting.
Tua Tagovailoa had the lowest average throwing depth (5.0) among QBs when pressured in Week 1
Instead, he ranked in the top six in aDOT when kept clean, per Pro Football Focus. This is important to note because the Dolphins are dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Left tackle Terron Armstead is questionable for Sunday and right tackle Austin Jackson was placed on short-term IR Friday morning. Tyreek Hill was the biggest addition this team made this offseason, but an improved offensive line was a big part of the thesis for why Tua’s life would be easier in 2022. It’s not ideal to see injuries early in the year. We’ve seen in recent seasons that Tua switches as a passer when there’s extra heat. He also ranked last in aDOT under pressure last year. He has playmakers who can work extremely well after the catch, but it just caps off this whole business. The Ravens had a cakewalk matchup with old friend Joe Flacco in Week 1, but they certainly looked back to form in terms of pass defense. Fantasy managers with any level of interest in the Dolphins don’t want to see them break out against Tua behind a compromised offensive line.
Top five teams at neutral pace of play
- Lions
- Cowboys
- Eagles
- Texans
- Panthers My Panthers stand out on this list. Ben McAdoo’s offenses traditionally play fast and uptempo. He has brought that approach to a Carolina offense that desperately needs it. While I didn’t like what I saw from Baker Mayfield or the passing game in Week 1, I’m willing to give it a tentative pass. Mayfield looked like a guy who hasn’t spent much time with this team. That makes sense — because it is. The Panthers offense looks like what we want structurally. I’m still confident in the bullish projections for guys like Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore.
The Eagles rank 11th in neutral-state passing percentage
This looks a lot more like the Eagles play-calling from early last year, not the unit that finished the season in the basement in terms of pass attempts. The difference between last year’s early Eagles team and the one we saw in Week 1: It worked this time. It helps to have a transformative talent like AJ Brown. If this type of operation continues in Philadelphia, we will have to fundamentally change the way we understand this offense and its players. Brown could end up as a top-five receiver, Jalen Hurts would put up incredible numbers, and eventually there will be a trickle down effect to the other players on the roster.
Top-5 RBs in yards before contact per rush
1 – Leonard Fournette 3.24 2- Javonte Williams 3.14 3 – D’Andre Swift 3.07 4 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2.86 5 – Cordarrelle Patterson 2.82 Leonard Fournette and the Bucs running game looked great despite the many injuries on the offensive line. The veteran back looked determined and ran superbly on Sunday. There’s a strange belief in some fantasy circles that Fournette isn’t a good back and is just taking advantage because of his circumstances. Enough; Fournette is off to a good start in the NFL. He was an undrafted player who deserves to be ranked higher the rest of the season (be sure to keep an eye on his status for Sunday as he is reportedly dealing with a hamstring injury). The Broncos did a lot of work to make sure Javonte Williams got space as both a rusher and receiver in Week 1. I know they made a huge trade for Russell Wilson in the offseason and everyone was (too) excited. of their receivers, but the team that took the field in Week 1 looked like a unit where their best player was the running back. Williams will likely get more production as a rusher going forward.
Top-5 players in yards after contact per rush
1 – Saquon Barkley 6.83 2 – D’Andre Swift 6.53 3 – Miles Sanders 6 4 – Jalen Hurts 4.76 5 – Rashad Penny 4.67 I have a few thoughts here. Saquon Barkley is a running back. He was a bit more of a runner than most want to admit dating back to his college days. However, the Week 1 version of Barkley ran decisively and brushed off defenders, consistently winning extra tackles. If we take this version of Barkley for 17 games, he’ll join Tier 1 fantasy running backs with ease. I just spilled early on the Eagles’ passing game, but they’re strong on the ground as well. Miles Sanders is never going to be a solid fantasy option, but he has some upside as a big-play runner paired with a good offense and a healthy rushing ecosystem. You’ll notice that D’Andre Swift is on both of the first two lists up there. I like to see it. Fantasy managers were upset that Jamaal Williams picked up the tight end job in Week 1. You’ll just have to learn to live with it and not let it bother you. Williams isn’t leaving. More importantly, the Lions’ talented offensive line is nearly fully functional (although they have some injuries this week), when they often weren’t last year, and Swift looks terrific as a runner. That wasn’t always the case last year. The high goal totals from early last year likely won’t return for Swift this season with Amon-Ra St. Brown to be a known player. But if he can make up ground as a rusher, it won’t matter much.
Top-5 RBs in routes run
1 – Darrell Henderson 39 2 – Joe Mixon 38 3 – Jonathan Taylor 34 4 – Aaron Jones 28 5 – Javonte Williams 28 Some of those players were boosted by the game script and overtime in Week 1, but we had some clarity in terms of receiving roles. Darrell Henderson was already committed to work for the Rams before Cam Akers, and now with rookie Kyren Williams – a pass protection maven in college – on IR, he should be able to easily keep that gig, working well ahead of Akers as long as he is healthy. Until this rotation changes, Henderson is a top-15 fantasy back. Joe Mixon is also interesting here. Some analysts chastised him for his historic lack of involvement as a pasha. However, he ran a route on 58% of Joe Burrow’s visits and accounted for 17% of the team’s targets. He’ll push for a top-5 running back if this receiving usage is the new norm. For the love of God, let’s hope we see more actual receiving usage for Aaron Jones in Week 2. He tied for the team lead in runs with some of the receivers, but wasn’t a featured piece in the target pecking order. It’s going to look like a huge hit in Round 2 — on a lot of my teams, by the way — if that doesn’t change.
