“The latest models show that the coastal storm surge is higher than the November 2011 storm that brought significant flooding to the region,” the National Weather Service predicted early Friday morning, adding that the flooding could be “potentially historic.” “This is a dangerous storm that will cause widespread coastal flooding south of the Bering Strait with water levels higher than those seen in nearly 50 years,” the agency said. The state is expected to see hurricane-force winds with gusts of up to 90 mph, according to the agency, and wave heights of up to 48 feet. Coastal flooding could exceed 12 feet on the western mainland. Depending on location, other areas could see gusts between 40 and 80 mph between Friday and Saturday night. The main concern, according to the agency, is flooding, structural damage and downed power lines. GOES-W takes a look at Tropical Storm Merbok rapidly transitioning to an extratropical low as it moves up the Bering Sea, bringing wave heights of up to 48 feet, wind gusts to 90 mph and coastal flooding in excess of 12 feet over western mainland AK and the Aleutians over the weekend. pic.twitter.com/hAGsk64J2f — NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) September 15, 2022 Much of Alaska’s west coast is already under warning and watch. All areas along the coastline from Quinhagak to Point Hope are under coastal flood and high wind warnings, while Cape Lisburne and northern coastal areas extending to Lake Teshekpuk are under a coastal flood watch. In Nome, water levels will be up to 11 feet above normal low tide, and the city’s mayor said Thursday that Belmont Point residents should “prepare for possible evacuation.” In Golovin, water levels could rise as much as 13 feet above normal. The National Weather Service’s Anchorage office said the storm’s overall moisture content is “fairly extreme” with enough moisture equivalent to “200 to 300% of normal.” Widespread power outages are also expected, the National Weather Service said, and the worst water levels are expected on Saturday. Rick Thoman, a climate expert at the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, said the situation is “almost a worst-case scenario of coastal flooding” for the Bering Sea coast. The storm extended “about 500 miles in all directions from the low center,” the weather service’s Anchorage office said.
“This is very serious: in some communities there is the potential for the worst coastal flooding in 50 years,” Thoman said, echoing the National Weather Service’s warning. Wx models locked: 36 hour pressure & wind forecast valid Sat 4am. AKDT. Storm center on west end of St. Lawrence and gusty winds across most of Bering. A near-worst-case coastal flooding scenario for the Bering Sea coast. #akwx @Climatologist49 @knomradio pic.twitter.com/OfY3uQtbxc — Rick Thoman (@AlaskaWx) September 16, 2022 Meteorologist Ed Plumb told The Associated Press that the storm will be “the deepest or strongest storm we’ve ever seen in September,” making it “a pretty unusual storm.”

Lee Cohen

Lee Cohen is a social media producer and emerging reporter for CBS News, focusing on social justice issues.