That’s the average regular-season playing time — just under three full games — it took the top receivers who switched teams since 1997 to calibrate their usage, production and new benchmarks (assuming they played at least 65 percent of snapshots). To oversimplify my findings, wide receiver data looks different in a player’s first eleven quarters and 11 minutes with his new team. In some cases, it takes time for chemistry to form. In others, wide receivers give their teams an early advantage because defenses are unpredictable, with new tendencies, plays and formations to adjust to. Coaches also bring to the table their own biases and influences from past experiences. This offseason, several wide receivers changed teams, while some had new coaches or quarterbacks join them. And several of those players were enjoying impressive debuts. Let’s look a little deeper at three players traded (Davante Adams of the Raiders, Tyreek Hill of the Dolphins and AJ Brown of the Eagles), one working with a new coach (Justin Jefferson of the Vikings, who now plays for Kevin O’Connell) and a pass-catcher from a new QB (the Colts’ Michael Pittman Jr., who added Matt Ryan as a teammate). In Week 1, the league’s top three passers in target share were Adams (48.6 percent), Brown (44.8) and Hill (38.7), per Next Generation Stats. Jefferson (35.5) was sixth and Pittman 26.5 percent. Obviously, not all defenses were the same, and game situations and flows varied, but this pattern is consistent with past examples — like Terrell Owens in Week 1 of 2004, when he scored three TDs on eight receptions (11 targets ) against the Giants in his Eagles debut. Additionally, the top three in air-yard share in Week 1 were Brown (72.8 — that’s absurdly good), Jefferson (70.3) and Adams (57.7), while Hill (45, 0, ninth) and Pittman (34.7) were also among the best in the league. Limiting that air-yard share to just wide receivers makes the results even more compelling: Adams (79.6, first), Brown (76.5, second), Jefferson (67.5, third) and Hill (56.8, fifth) are in the top five. Pittman’s percentage (39.4) is a bit closer to the one-game average for a WR1 in a run-heavy offense. This one week sample size is obviously very small and there is a degree of “get the ball to the best player” strategy. Plus, these guys happen to be among the NFL’s best at their position. But as history helps us see how long the edge lasts for top receivers in new situations, let’s watch together to see what might happen next.
