Here’s what we know about Fiona’s threats to the Caribbean and what the storm could mean on its way to the mainland United States.
Latest status and forecast
Fiona’s center entered the northeastern Caribbean after passing over Guadeloupe. Tropical storm conditions will continue in the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday morning. The storm continues to battle some adverse upper level winds (wind shear) and dry air. The worst of the rainfall and gusty winds are occurring in the central Lesser Antilles now after the center has passed because most of the storm activity is on the eastern side of the system due to wind shear. On this track, Fiona will move near or just south of the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend and then to Hispaniola Sunday night or Monday. A slightly more favorable environment may allow for some intensification this weekend, and Fiona could develop into a hurricane as it tracks near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti). After that, uncertainty increases due to this potential land interaction, but some intensification is expected once Fiona reaches waters north of Hispaniola. Projected Route (The red shaded area indicates the likely path of the tropical cyclone’s center. It is important to note that the impacts (particularly heavy rain, high gustiness, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually extend beyond the predicted path of.)
Threats of the Caribbean
A hurricane watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Guadeloupe, St. Bartholomew and Saint Martin and for parts of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within 36 hours. Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. This means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. Areas from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico to eastern Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos could see rainfall totals of 4 to 10 inches (locally higher) from Fiona. This heavy rain could cause dangerous flooding and mudslides this weekend into early next week, particularly in mountainous terrain. Up to 16 inches is possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Rainfall forecast (This should be interpreted as a broad perspective of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the tropical cyclone’s projected track. Higher amounts may occur when rain bands stall over a period of a few hours. ) A small storm surge is possible on the east and south coasts this weekend in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. Additionally, rip currents and rough surf are possible.
Am I Fiona a threat to the US mainland?
The bottom line is that the continental US, especially from Florida to the rest of the Southeast coast, should watch the forecast for now, as it’s too early to tell if Fiona will eventually become a threat. That’s because Fiona faces the obstacles mentioned earlier, such as wind shear, dry air, and a possible track over some mountainous Caribbean islands like Hispaniola. Among the wide range of possibilities include: -Intensifies earlier, and therefore turns north into the central Atlantic Ocean away from the US East Coast, similar to Hurricane Earl last week. – Slight strengthening over the next several days, continuing west to west-northwest, then curving north later, much closer to or over the Bahamas and possibly the US Southeast later next week. For now, the National Hurricane Center’s forecast calls for Fiona to gain some strength by early next week, which should allow it to make a gradual turn northward near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos. However, as is often the case in hurricane season, this forecast is subject to change. Check back with us on weather.com for the latest updates on this forecast over the next few days. No matter what happens, now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits. Hurricane preparedness information can be found here. More from weather.com: 12 things you might not know about your hurricane forecast 7 Things Newcomers to Florida Should Know About Hurricane Season Florida peninsula’s luck from Hurricane Irma won’t last The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report breaking news about weather, the environment and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
