Concerns that a beleaguered, desperate Vladimir Putin might resort to nuclear, chemical or biological weapons have resurfaced in the US and Europe, along with the argument, made by France’s Emmanuel Macron, that Russia’s president, despite his horrific crimes of him, he must not be “humiliated.” ” – and allowed a way out. Speaking last week, US President Joe Biden said any use by Putin of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Ukraine – for example, detonating a low-yield tactical nuclear warhead – would “change the face of war”. Russia will become “more pariah in the world than ever,” he said. But while warning that the US response would be “consequential”, Biden declined to say whether it would involve similar US or NATO military action. The content of his remarks suggests he has not personally raised the nuclear issue with Russia’s leader. This renewed anxiety about WMD reflects the trap Putin set for the West when he launched his invasion. By putting Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert, deploying missiles closer to NATO states, and targeting Chernobyl and then the giant Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, he and others like Dmitry Medvedev deliberately played on Armageddon fears. They hoped to weaken support for Kyiv and prevent immediate NATO intervention. It has worked so far. The US and NATO walked into the trap from the start. While supplying Ukraine with ever-increasing amounts of weapons and hardware, Biden and his allies continue to limit the power, range and quality of such weapons to ensure that Putin’s position is not weakened enough to turn to extreme measures. As a result, NATO is still not providing the tanks, missile defenses and air cover that Ukrainian forces need to secure the liberated areas and gain the upper hand. Germany and others take their cue from Washington. Last week, Chancellor Olaf Solz again called on Putin to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory – while withholding the Leopard tanks that Kyiv says are necessary to achieve that goal. Putin’s trap has other malign aspects, most notably the Kremlin’s economic blitzkrieg on Europe. It actually uses gas and oil to detonate cost-of-life bombs in every private home, shop and factory. EU politicians who thought they could reason with Putin are embroiled in the war-like confrontation they tried to avoid. Some waver. Putin’s meeting last week with Xi Jinping did not appear to have gone smoothly, with the Chinese president echoing Indian criticism of the war’s devastating global impact. But their overall “no limits” partnership seems unaffected. Their common goal: its post-1945 evisceration under the leadership of the Western rule-based order. In this context, Ukraine and Taiwan are a prologue. The revelation in recently liberated Kharkiv of Bucha-style mass graves and apparent war crimes represents another strand of Putin’s strategy of weakening. His message to the west: your “universal values” don’t make sense in the world I’m creating. There is little Putin will not do when he feels it is necessary to win on the battlefield. Daniel Davis, retired colonel of the US Army By contemptuously flouting the authority of the UN, the Geneva Conventions and human rights law, it strikes at the heart of Western self-confidence and self-reliance. Not quite a turning point, then, but a week where other myths were busted. The defeatist argument that Ukraine cannot prevail and that Western military and financial aid is merely delaying the inevitable has been debunked. Ukraine is winning, for now at least, despite the hum and the buzz. Nor is Putin’s grip on power thought to be unshakable anymore. There is growing internal criticism, especially from his pro-war, nationalist supporters. Their anger is currently aimed at the military high command, but everyone knows who runs the commanders. Now is not the time to relax the pressure in fear of what Putin might do. Instead, it’s time to pick it up. Because, ironically, it is Putin who is trapped now. He should not escape the consequences of his actions. For Europe (and the UK), this means extending the very modest energy measures proposed by EU Commission President Ursula van der Leyen last week – and ending energy dependence on Moscow. It means sending more, better heavy weapons to Kyiv and redoubling efforts to inform the Russians about what is really being done in their name. It means creating an international criminal court for Ukraine, like the one for the former Yugoslavia, and confiscating frozen Russian state assets to fund reparations, reparations and rebuilding the country. It means developing a military coalition of those willing to secure Zaporizhia, as Lithuania is proposing. Daunting challenges remain. Russia has even more tanks and artillery. It still controls a fifth of Ukraine’s territory. It is mobilizing 137,000 additional troops on Putin’s orders and could overwhelm its rivals by spring. A relentless campaign of indiscriminate retaliation against political targets has begun, following its recent setbacks. “He is little [Putin] it will not do so when it feels it is necessary to win on the battlefield,” warned analyst Daniel Davis, a retired US Army colonel. But that’s no argument to cut him some slack. Don’t give him an inch. Keep him on the run. Show him that there is no other way out than going back. And if, panicked and vengeful, Putin does threaten to use a tactical nuclear weapon on Ukraine, the response must be harsh and clear. Biden must personally and formally inform him, in advance, that any such attack, which breaks the global taboo on nuclear attack and undermines international security, will be seen as an act of war against the US and NATO – with all the terrible , which will overthrow the regime. consequences that may result. Maybe Biden has already done that. Let’s hope he has. In this case, stop pulling western punches. Step up and make sure Ukraine wins, wins well and wins soon.
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