TORONTO – While the head of the World Health Organization says the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is “in sight,” some Canadian experts warn it would be premature to declare the global health crisis over.
Their comments come after the WHO said the number of global deaths attributed to COVID-19 last week reached its lowest point since the start of the pandemic and called on governments to remain vigilant to prevent a backsliding at a critical time.
“Psychologically, a lot of people in the public and in government felt they wanted to move on,” said Dr. Fahad Razak, who headed the recently disbanded team of scientists advising the Ontario government on COVID-19.
“The question is: are we there yet?  And there are many parts of the system that suggest it’s premature to make that call.”
Traditionally, coronavirus variants appear during the fall and winter, leading to an increase in cases and deaths, Razak said, and it’s likely to happen again this year.
If we don’t see a new wave during peak COVID season, he said experts may be more willing to declare the pandemic over in the spring.
“I’d like to see us go through the fall and winter with stability in our system,” he said.  “And part of that means controlling the virus … to give our health system a chance to function fully in the fall and winter.”
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced on Wednesday that deaths had fallen by 22 percent in the past week, to just over 11,000 reported worldwide.  There were 3.1 million new cases, a drop of 28%, continuing the decline of the disease for weeks in every part of the world.
“We’re not there yet, but the end is in sight,” he said, comparing the effort to that of a marathon runner approaching the finish line.
“Now is the worst time to stop running.  Now is the time to run harder and make sure we push the limits and reap all the rewards of our hard work.”
Dr. Anna Banerji, an infectious disease specialist and associate professor at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, also urged vigilance.
“A lot of people, myself included, think there’s going to be another wave in Canada with kids going back to school and without a mask, and kids can go back to school with COVID,” he said.
Banerjee said the WHO should be careful not to act too quickly to declare an end to the pandemic.
“If it’s not completely over, to announce it a little prematurely would mean people not getting their shots, not getting their boosters,” he said.
And Colin Furness, who also teaches at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, noted that the lack of COVID-19 data in Canada makes it difficult to prove that things are really good.
“When we stopped testing for COVID, we made it much harder to diagnose that people have COVID.  And when we made it more difficult to do that, we made it very difficult to start counting who died from COVID,” he said.
He said the lack of information meant the WHO had to tone down its language.
“I think it’s dangerous for the WHO to make big blanket statements when we have a global phenomenon that just doesn’t play out the same way at the same time in all places,” he said.
And Neil Seeman, a health communicator and lecturer at the Institute for Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at U of T, said that in listening to the WHO’s messages, it’s just as important to pay attention to the second part of their statement – that we can Don’t let our guards – as with the first – that the end is in sight.
“What it is, is galvanization.  A call to arms,” he said.  “It is by no means an indication that things are over.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on September 16, 2022.