The storm, whose long-term path is still uncertain, should be monitored by residents along the US East Coast. However, the majority of computer models suggest that it should curl up over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean after exiting the Caribbean Sea. Early next week, Fiona looks set to be a problem for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos. As it swept across Guadeloupe in the northern Lesser Antilles, the storm dumped up to 16.65 inches of rain, causing severe flooding and at least one death. The storm’s peak winds increased from 50 to 60 mph between Friday and Saturday and are expected to approach 75 mph by Sunday – which is hurricane strength – when its center will pass just south of Puerto Rico. “Hurricane conditions are expected in parts of Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night and are possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday,” the National Hurricane Center wrote Saturday morning. Rain and tropical storm-force winds are expected earlier as they reach the Virgin Islands during the day Saturday and Saturday night in Puerto Rico. Rainfall is the risk of greatest concern, with some areas of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico forecast to see double-digit amounts. “This rainfall is likely to cause significant flooding impacts, including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides over areas of higher ground, particularly in Puerto Rico,” the Hurricane Center wrote. The Hurricane Center predicts the following rainfall totals:
Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with local totals up to 10 inches. Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches, with localized totals of up to 20 inches in eastern and southeastern areas. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches, with localized totals of up to 12 inches along the far east coast. Haiti: 1 to 3 inches, with local totals up to 4 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches.
In addition to the rain, some coastal areas could see a storm surge, or rise in ocean waters above normal dry land, of 1 to 3 feet. The storm, centered about 130 miles southeast of St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands Saturday morning, heading west about 8 mph. The Hurricane Center said the storm appeared better organized Saturday morning as the hostile high-altitude winds that had previously disrupted its movement receded. Over the weekend environmental conditions are favorable for more strengthening. “[I]Intensification is expected and Fiona is likely to be near or at hurricane strength as it moves near Puerto Rico on Sunday,” the Hurricane Center wrote. After Fiona passes north of Puerto Rico, splitting the gap between the western part of the island and the Dominican Republic, known as the Mona Passage, maximum winds are expected to increase to 100 mph or more early next week. Until then, it is projected to be positioned east of the Bahamas. Compared to Friday, computer models have agreed better that Fiona will head into the open Atlantic after passing north of the Bahamas, rather than turning west toward the US East Coast. However, some extreme simulations still track Fiona near the Southeast, so it is premature to sound the all-clear. Bermuda should also keep an eye on the storm’s long-term track as some simulations put it dangerously close to late next week.
