Republican Senate candidates looking to make the 2022 midterms about inflation, crime and President Joe Biden’s first term face a new dilemma in Sen. Lindsey Graham’s bill that would ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
The bill, which the South Carolina Republican introduced this week on a day of disappointing inflation news, presents his party with problems that are two-fold as they try to overturn the House and Senate in November: Not only does it reignite the debate over abortions. an issue that many Republicans have tried to avoid since the Supreme Court, in a publicly unpopular decision, overturned Roe v. Wade in June, but it taps into the answers GOP candidates have been gathering this summer — that abortion should it is an issue that should be left to the states, not the federal government.
Many Republican Senate candidates appear ill-prepared to respond to Graham’s bill, with several either distancing themselves from it, fumbling with their answers or simply not engaging with the issue, while GOP leadership appears reluctant to support the proposal Graham’s. Other candidates have embraced it more eagerly, believing it enables them to counter attacks from Democrats tying them to some of the state’s most extreme measures or the threat of a full national ban. (Graham’s proposal provides exceptions for abortions needed to protect the life of the mother and if the woman becomes pregnant through rape or incest.)
Privately, however, many Republican operatives are eyeing Graham, especially those tasked with winning key Senate seats. Republicans need only a one-seat net gain to flip the chamber, but the changing political landscape in the months since the Supreme Court ruling has already dampened hopes of an overwhelming red wave.
“It definitely complicates some things,” said a Republican operative who works on Senate races. “For some candidates, that’s a fight they’re willing to make. … But for others, they don’t want to talk about abortion at all.”
“Lindsey is trying to be helpful. But he doesn’t always know the best way to do it,” the agent added.
That was clear in some of the tense ways Republican Senate candidates responded to the bill.
Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker took two contradictory positions in his statement, saying he believes “the issue should be decided at the state level” but that he would support such a federal law. Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz issued his standard statement that he is “pro-life” with exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother, but did not take a firm position on the Graham bill. Other Republican Senate candidates did not respond to CNN’s questions, including JD Vance of Ohio and Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina.
Several conservative media outlets reacted to the bill with dismay at the political inconvenience it creates for Republican candidates. The Wall Street Journal editorial board criticized Graham this week for “making a big political gamble” that exposes GOP candidates and gives swing voters in key states a reason to vote against the party. A recent Wall Street Journal poll found that 57% of registered voters oppose a 15-week ban with a maternal health exception.
But a source familiar with the South Carolina Republican’s thinking said Graham believes trying to sidestep the abortion issue isn’t working for Republicans, while Democrats are making it a central point in nearly every key race. As much as the GOP wants to talk about other issues, like the economy, it’s just not realistic.
Members of the anti-abortion movement agree that offense, not defense, is the best position to take on the issue.
“They can’t wish the matter away,” Ramesh Ponnuru, the editor of the conservative magazine National Review, told CNN. “What they can do is decide if they want to affect the terms of the debate or if they want the debate to be held on the terms it’s going on.”
Democrats, however, are glad that Republicans are entering the conversation. Emboldened after voters in Kansas rejected a ballot measure that would have given the state’s GOP-led legislature the ability to advance an abortion ban, and after voters in New York and Alaska helped Democrats win special elections for abortion, Democrats responded to the Graham bill by doubling down on their efforts, noting with glee the predicament it puts Republicans in.
“Senate Republicans are putting one of the ugliest, least popular pieces of their agenda on full display,” said David Bergstein, a top spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “For voters, it will be another strong argument to vote against the GOP Senate nominees in November.”
Graham was even on the defensive during a friendly interview on Fox News, with host Jesse Waters taking him to task for giving Democrats an “examination” on the economy. Inflation, on which Republicans hammered Democrats for most of the campaign, rebounded in August, according to government data released Tuesday — the same day Graham unveiled his proposal.
“I’m proudly pro-life and I don’t apologize for being pro-life and there’s never a bad time to stand up for the unborn,” Graham said in the interview, raising his voice at one point. “I don’t think there is a bad day to defend the unborn. … We have to go on the attack here.”
Graham was largely silent on the tactics behind making such an announcement two months before Election Day, instead asking, “If not now, when? If not me, who?’
Not all Republicans are running from Graham or the 15-week limit. Despite his silence on the bill, Vance will attend a fundraiser next month with the South Carolina senator. And Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who is running for re-election this year, has co-sponsored Graham’s bill, tweeting that “the extremists” on the issue are Democrats, like his opponent Rep. Val Demings, not Republicans.
Blake Masters, the GOP Senate candidate in Arizona, has faced scrutiny for his recent efforts to soften his stance on abortion since winning his primary last month. But this week, he leaned back on his support for restricting access to abortion.
“Of course, I support Lindsey Graham’s 15-week bill and hope it passes,” Masters said in a statement to CNN. “If not, I propose and will introduce a standalone bill for the third quarter.”
Anti-abortion activists, in addition to supporting the bill on its merits, argue that it benefits Republicans politically.
“I’m not saying don’t talk about inflation, don’t talk about the economy, but you also have to address the issue of the moment,” said Mallory Carroll, spokeswoman for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. a political group whose president, Marjorie Dannenfelser, stood behind Graham this week while introducing his bill. “Graham has given a gift to those running for re-election because this bill is a politically defensible position to take that also moves the ball forward for the pro-life movement and saves lives.”
But many Republican leaders don’t see it that way.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell appears unwilling to follow Graham’s lead on abortion, telling CNN’s Manu Raju that “most members of my conference would prefer this to be handled at the state level” and refusing to offer public guidance to candidates on subject.
“I think every Republican senator who’s in these contested races this year has an answer to how they feel about it, and it might be different in different states,” the Kentucky Republican said Tuesday. “So I leave it to our candidates who are competent enough to handle this issue to determine for themselves what their answer is.”
And when asked Wednesday whether a future Republican majority in the House would hold a vote on the Graham bill, GOP Whip Steve Scalise demurred and instead tried to focus on what he saw as extremism by Democrats.
“Well, first we have to see what our majority looks like,” the Louisiana Republican said. “But I think if you’ve seen it, we’re a pro-life party, we’re pro-life.”
That reluctance from leadership has left Republican candidates largely on their own, after advice from party campaign committees launched after the court’s decision was announced to try to refocus on Democrats’ abortion policy — notably the reluctance some candidates to be clear about what, if any, limits they support in the process.
A poll conducted for the Republican National Committee and released Tuesday encouraged the candidates to “put your opponent on the defensive and make them answer for their extreme position.”
And a presentation for candidates by the National Republican Senatorial Committee advises them to stick to the message that “your opponent is the extremist” and “you are the compassionate reasonable person.”
“BUT, don’t let the campaign become about abortion – get back to where the voters are – inflation, gas prices, energy, crime, border security, etc.,” reads the final slide of the presentation.
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