A hurricane warning has been issued for Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic, and a hurricane watch has been issued for the US Virgin Islands. Here’s what we know about Fiona’s threats to the Caribbean and what the storm could mean on its way to the mainland United States.
Latest status and forecast
Fiona’s center is now more than 100 miles southeast of Puerto Rico after passing Guadalupe Friday night. Tropical storm surges have been reported over US territories. Recently, a station in St. Croix reported a gust of 49 mph. Fiona has continued to strengthen and is expected to become a hurricane before its center reaches Puerto Rico. There is a chance of rapid strengthening on Sunday as Fiona gets better organized. On this track, Fiona will move near or just south of the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then north of Hispaniola Sunday night or Monday. On Sunday, the intensity forecast is uncertain due to possible land interaction with Puerto Rico, but intensification is expected once Fiona reaches waters north of Hispaniola. Projected Route (The red shaded area indicates the likely path of the tropical cyclone’s center. It is important to note that the impacts (particularly heavy rain, high gustiness, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually extend beyond the predicted path of.)
Threats of the Caribbean
A hurricane warning is now in effect for Puerto Rico and parts of the eastern Dominican Republic, meaning hurricane conditions are expected in Puerto Rico on Sunday and the Dominican Republic Sunday night into Monday. A hurricane watch has been issued for the US Virgin Islands and the northern parts of the Dominican Republic, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Virgin Islands and parts of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within 36 hours. Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. This means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. The British Virgin Islands and the US Virgin Islands, as well as the Turks and Caicos, may receive 4 to 6 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts from Fiona. Rainfall in Puerto Rico could range from 12 to 16 inches total with up to 20 inches locally possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center. Rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the Dominican Republic, with locally higher amounts. Haiti can expect 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. This heavy rainfall could cause dangerous flooding and mudslides this weekend into early next week, particularly in mountainous terrain. Rainfall forecast (This should be interpreted as a broad perspective of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the tropical cyclone’s projected track. Higher amounts may occur when rain bands stall over a period of a few hours. ) A small storm surge is possible on the east and south coasts this weekend in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. Additionally, rip currents and rough surf are possible.
Am I Fiona a threat to the US mainland?
It’s not likely. The bottom line is that the US mainland, especially from Florida to the rest of the southeast coast, should just watch the forecast, but immediate impacts (rain/wind) are unlikely. Almost every computer model now shows that Fiona will retrace away from the US, but could have an impact on Bermuda. Fiona may be close to a major hurricane as it approaches Bermuda late next week. Details of how much wind and rain lie ahead for the archipelago remain to be ascertained, but as the models above show, there is an increasing degree of certainty that Fiona will be near Bermuda. However, as is often the case in hurricane season, this forecast is subject to change. Check back with us on weather.com for the latest updates on this forecast over the next few days. No matter what happens, now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits. Hurricane preparedness information can be found here. More from weather.com: 12 things you might not know about your hurricane forecast 7 Things Newcomers to Florida Should Know About Hurricane Season Florida peninsula’s luck from Hurricane Irma won’t last The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report breaking news about weather, the environment and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
