Tighter sanctions and export controls, along with damage to the reputation of Russian weapons quality, are accelerating a downward spiral in defense sales to Asian nations, analysts say.
Last month, the Philippines confirmed it had canceled a $227.7 million deal for 16 Russian Mi-17 helicopters over fears it would face sanctions from the West, while last week unconfirmed reports suggested Vietnam may further distance itself from Russia’s state arms agency amid a long-term decline in sales.
“The days when Russia was top dog in Southeast Asia are over. I think they were over even before the war and I don’t think they will ever recover,” said Dr Ian Storey, a Southeast Asian security expert at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
Sanctions concerns had been exacerbated by a “public relations disaster” over images of damaged and abandoned military vehicles in Ukraine that “call into question the quality and reliability of Russian-made military hardware,” he said in a recent report.
Some of the equipment destroyed on the battlefield, including tanks, armored personnel carriers and military attack and transport helicopters, had been purchased from Southeast Asian countries.
The reputation of Russian-made jets – Moscow’s most lucrative defense export in the region – took a hit when one of its most advanced fighters, a fourth-generation SU-35 Plus, was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile over Ukraine in April.
Last month, the head of Russia’s arms exports forecast that revenue in 2022 was likely to reach about $10.8 billion, which would be about 26 percent lower than in 2021, despite President Vladimir Putin’s pledges to expanding military cooperation with the country’s allies in Latin America. , Asia and Africa.
