NFL odds and picks
For the latest NFL odds, click here. Pick Jaguars +3 Best Book Time 1 p.m. ET By now you’ve probably heard of the Colts’ perennial struggles in Jacksonville. In case you haven’t done it, let me remind you:
The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since the 2014 season. The Jaguars are 6-0 in the series (SU) at home against the Colts since 2015, averaging 16.8 points per game. The Jaguars are 6-0 against the spread (ATS) at home against the Colts since 2015, averaging 20.1 points per game. The Jaguars have beaten SU as an underdog in each of the last four games, by an average margin of victory of 11.5 and an average coverage margin of 19.3.
It’s no surprise that the Colts have struggled in a matchup like this. The familiarity of divisional games tends to be an equalizer. And as a dome team, the Colts aren’t used to playing in Jacksonville’s hot and humid climate. But there’s a lot more than a run favoring Jacksonville in this game. The Colts’ best player on defense (LB Shaquille Leonard) was ruled out for the second week in a row. Their best player (WR Michael Pittman) was demoted from a limited practice participant on Wednesday to DNP on Thursday and Friday with a quad issue. Another of their starting WRs (Alec Pierce) is out with a concussion. The Jaguars, meanwhile, didn’t even put a player on the final injury report. Couple that with a newly acquired, aging quarterback with few pass-catchers outside of Pittman on offense and a missing defensive leader (Leonard), and you have an unbeaten, average team that can’t put away a team like the Texans. the road. The Jags present a much tougher matchup for the Colts. Their new look under Doug Pederson and Press Taylor averaged 6.1 yards per play against Washington in Week 1. And Jacksonville’s defensive strength stops the run (3.0 yards per carry allowed on 28 carries) , which aligns perfectly with what the Colts want to do offensively. According to Action Labs data, Week 2 underdogs by 6 points or less coming off a complete loss in Week 1 are 62-34-2 (65%) since 2005, beating the spread by an average of 1.9 points per game. The home dogs to that point have been even better, going 26-12 (68%) ATS and outscoring the shutout by an average of 2.6 points. FanDuel Quickslip: Jaguars +3 » Back to Table of Contents « Pick Panthers +2 (bet for +1) Best Book Time 1pm. ET This is a great place to sell high on the Giants. While Daniel Jones is 13-6 (68%) ATS on the road, he is just 7-12 (37%) ATS at home. That’s still an offense that went scoreless for the first 34 minutes of a Week 1 game, one that featured Richie James Jr. as the top target and David Sills as the WR who ran a route 57% of the time. And one whose most explosive pass rushers — Wan’Dale Robinson (knee out) and Kadarius Toney (hamstring questionable) — were both injured. The Panthers will be able to use Christian McCaffrey to take advantage of a Giants running back corps that is absolutely horrible in pass coverage. The Giants’ starting linebackers are Tae Crowder and Austin Calitro. Crowder has earned a coverage grade below the 15th percentile by PFF every year of his career. Calitro is a 2017 undrafted free agent who made his first start in nearly three years last week, grading out as the worst linebacker in the league in coverage. Combined, those LBs allowed seven completions on eight targets for 102 yards and two TDs, with both scores going to RB Dontrell Hilliard. Good luck with CMC. The Giants will also be without lost No. 2 cornerback Aaron Robinson. Adoree Jackson is great, but she can’t cover DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson at the same time. As I’ve pointed out many times, the key to beating Baker Mayfield is pressure. The Browns managed to do that, pressuring him on 42.4% of his returns last week, fifth-highest in Week 1. The Giants, meanwhile, only pressured Ryan Tannehill on 25.4% of his returns, fifth lowest — and that was with them winning 45.7% of his misses. Per Action Labs, Week 2 Dogs coming in a close loss by four or fewer points are 26-14 (65%) ATS in Week 2 since 2005. And during that same span, Dogs by 6 points or fewer come from Week 1 ATS loss has 56-32-2 (64%) in Week 2. FanDuel Quickslip: Panthers +1.5 » Back to Table of Contents « Pick Under 44 (Bet 43) | 1H Under 21.5 (Bet on 21) Best Booking Time 1pm ET If it wasn’t obvious in Dallas last Sunday night, this isn’t the same Bucks offense. The Bucs scored just 19 points in Week 1 while rushing 33 times and passing just 29 times. Although the Saints had a tough time stopping the series against the Falcons’ unconventional rushing attack of Cordarrelle Patterson and Marcus Mariota, they are consistently among the NFL’s best run defenses and present a tougher game on the ground than the Cowboys. But the Bucs could struggle even more if they attempt to blow it. In five meetings against the Saints as a member of the Bucs, Tom Brady has failed to throw for 240 yards in four of them. The one time he did (last season at New Orleans), he committed three turnovers, including a game-sealing pick-six. The Saints have a formula for success against Brady because they can get inside pressure and Marcus Lattimore always keeps Mike Evans below his normal average. Also, the Bucks offensive line is an issue this season. Their three new starters on the interior line combined to allow five pressures and four hurries last week against Dallas. Left tackle Donovan Smith (elbow) is questionable and his replacement, Josh Wells, allowed two pressures and a sack on just 19 snaps last week, according to Pro Football Focus. The last time these two teams met, the Saints shut out the Bucs, 9-0. On the other side of the ball, the Bucks have three quality corners in Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Budding who can match up with Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olav. And with Vita Vea anchoring their interior line, the Bucs are also one of the NFL’s best run defenses, which doesn’t bode well for a Saints running game dealing with injuries to both Alvin Kamara (questionable ribs) and Mark Ingram. (questionable-ankle). I’m splitting my unit on this one between the full game and the first half just in case we see one of these teams fall far behind. Brady in comeback mode is still Brady, and Jameis Winston in comeback mode can give the defense six points at any given time. According to our Action Labs data, Divisional Week 2 unders are 40-22-2 (65%) since 2005 when the total opens at 43 or higher. FanDuel Quickslip: Under 43.5 » Back to Table of Contents « Pick Garrett Wilson Over 2.5 Receptions (-148) Best Book Time 1 pm ET Wilson finished with four catches on eight targets in his debut despite sitting out much of the first quarter. Wilson should be more involved this week. According to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic, “[Jets head coach Robert] Saleh said Wilson didn’t play as much early on because the Jets focused on using their 12-man (one running back, two tight ends) and 13-man (one RB, three TE) packages against the Ravens.” This week, No. 2 tight end CJ Uzomah is questionable, leaving a wide receiver (Lawrence Cager), a practice squad call-up (Kenny Yeboah) and a rookie who was healthy in Week 1 (Jeremy Ruckert) at tight end behind starter Tyler Conklin. In addition to more wide receiver packages this week, Wilson should also get a boost in playing time because No. 4 receiver Braxton Berrios, who ran just six fewer carries than Wilson (35) last week, is listed as questionable with a heel injury. . Wilson moved between the slot and the outside in Week 1, so he could avoid Cleveland’s best cornerback, Denzel Ward, enough to record at least three catches for the second straight week. » Back to Table of Contents « Pick Lions +1.5 Best Book Time 1 pm ET Here I sell high in Washington. Both of these teams have bad defenses, but the difference is the Lions have a quarterback in Jared Goff who is less likely to turn the ball over. This is also a good spot for the Lions, as they are in their second straight home game still hungry for win No. 1, while Washington could be disappointed in their first road game after winning at home last week. According to Action Labs data, Week 2 hosts facing visitors who covered at home in Week 1 are 60-50-2 (55%) ATS since 2005, including 8-4 (67%) when favored from under a field goal. FanDuel Quickslip: Lions +1.5 » Back to Table of Contents «
