Brazil’s Oct. 2 vote pits 76-year-old leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, a former lawmaker and army chief.
Analysts fear that Brazil, home to more than 210 million people, could face political violence or something similar to the January 6, 2021 riot at the US Capitol, as Bolsonaro has consistently sought to delegitimize the electoral system.
With anti-government power high and Lula leading in the polls, Brazil could become the latest Latin American country to turn to the political left, following recent elections in Colombia, Chile, Honduras and others.
“You have two candidates who represent very different attitudes towards Brazilian democracy, as well as different visions,” said Matthew Richmond, a researcher who tracks Brazilian politics at the London School of Economics.
“If we are to take Bolsonaro’s recent statements at face value, as we should, he is unlikely to accept the result.”
Former Brazilian president and current presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party speaks during a presidential debate in Sao Paulo on August 28. Brazil will hold general elections on October 2. (Andre Penner/The Associated Press)
“Only God will get me out,” says Bolsonaro
Most polls, including one by Genial/Quaest released earlier this month, show Lula holding a double-digit lead over Bolsonaro in the first round of voting. Other candidates, including a senator and a former governor, is less than 10 percent and the race is widely seen as a showdown between Bolsonaro and Lula. Under Brazilian election rules, a second round of voting between the top two candidates is expected if a single candidate does not win more than 50 percent in the first round. Like his political ally, former US President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro has consistently sought to undermine the credibility of state institutions, calling Brazil’s widely respected voting infrastructure a “sham”. “We cannot accept an electoral system that does not offer any security in elections,” Bolsonaro told supporters last year. “Only God will get me out.” He also said he might not accept the election results unless the computerized system used by Brazilian authorities is replaced by paper ballots. – Sorocaba / SP (Tuesday) pic.twitter.com/YupWlL9Wnj — @jairbolsonaro Felipe Ferreira, a data scientist based in Rio de Janeiro, clarified that Brazil’s electronic voting machines are secure systems. “And no hacking or data manipulation attacks have ever been reported.” Still, Ferreira said a Jan. 6-style uprising by Bolsonaro supporters after the vote is possible and could have a major impact on the country’s democracy. “We just have to wait and watch.”
Lula: From prison to the presidential palace?
Lula, a former metal worker, ruled Brazil from 2003 to 2010, leading rapid economic growth and poverty reductions due to high prices for the country’s key commodity exports, cash transfers to the poor and other factors. Critics say it was a period marked by bribery at the highest levels of government. Lula was jailed in 2018 for corruption and money laundering and spent more than a year in prison before a Supreme Court judge overturned his conviction. Lula em encontro com cooperativas https://t.co/6Thl4vMLAA —@LulaOfficial The former union leader, who lost a finger during an accident while working in a factory before entering politics, maintains the charges were political, leveled by a partisan judge who later became Bolsonaro’s justice minister. He always proclaimed his innocence. In these elections, Lula tried to present himself as a political moderate. a safe pair of hands that can revitalize Brazil’s economy and international reputation while respecting the country’s democratic institutions. “He’s trying to avoid being seen as a radical or a populist,” said Richmond, a London-based researcher. “That’s very strategic, trying to win over voters in smaller towns … might also reduce his charisma a little bit.”
Bolsonaro: From outsider to insider?
Casting himself as a hard-nosed political outsider, Bolsonaro swept to power four years ago amid a massive corruption scandal involving the state oil company and fury over the recession that followed the collapse of the commodities boom. “In 2018, Bolsonaro presented himself as the anti-establishment, anti-corruption candidate; the one who wouldn’t make deals with corrupt politicians,” said Jill Hedges, senior Latin America analyst at consultancy Oxford Analytica. Once in power, however, he formed alliances with factions in Brazil’s Congress known as the Centro, parties “whose only ideology is to take money,” Hedges said. “He cannot appear as an anti-corruption candidate now.” Bolsonaro greets supporters upon his arrival at a military exhibition in Rio de Janeiro on September 7. The president has repeatedly tried to delegitimize Brazil’s electoral process. (Silvia Izquierdo/The Associated Press) Also, more than 680,000 Brazilians have died from COVID-19, with health experts criticizing the government’s response to the pandemic. While economic growth picked up in the second half of this year and Brazil’s inflation rate eased, interest rates have risen to more than 13 percent, compared to less than 4 percent in Canada, straining budgets and curbing investment. But for Bolsonaro’s core supporters, who analysts estimate to be between 20 and 30 percent of the population, he is on a historic mission to restore order and traditional values. They see his attempts to beat him at the ballot box as a conspiracy by a corrupt political and media class. WATCHES | Rally of supporters for Bolsonaro:
Rally of supporters for Bolsonaro
A huge crowd has gathered to show their support for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro as his case against the Supreme Court continues. (REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli) “Our battle is a battle between good and evil,” Bolsonaro told hundreds of thousands of cheering partisans who gathered in Rio de Janeiro on Brazil’s Independence Day earlier this month. Analysts fear that such rhetoric, combined with the general atmosphere in a country already experiencing high levels of insecurity, including deadly inter-partisan attacks on the trial campaign, could lead to wider political violence.
Eyes on the army
Brazil emerged from more than 20 years of military rule in 1985, and Bolsonaro has expressed his love of authoritarianism, calling members of the junta tortured dissidents in the 1960s and 1970s “heroes” and claiming that Cold War-era dictatorships throughout South America “pacified” the region. Condemned by human rights groups, the president’s tough talk has garnered widespread support from members of Brazil’s military, Hedges said. Military figures also hold senior positions in Bolsonaro’s cabinet, including the vice presidency. Military personnel march during a parade in Brasilia, the capital, on September 7. Members of Brazil’s security forces are backing Bolsonaro, with some senior leaders echoing the president’s complaints about Brazil’s electoral system, leading analysts to fear political violence after the vote. (Eraldo Peres/The Associated Press) A study by Brazilian Public Safety Foruma non-partisan research group, found that more than half of the country’s military police, responsible for fighting street crime, actively participated in pro-Bolsonaro social media groups in 2021, an increase from the previous year. The country has more than 400,000 military police officers, meaning at least 200,000 heavily armed people are actively supporting Bolsonaro, according to the study. In contrast to the common law enforcement motto, “to serve and protect,” some of Brazil’s official military police trucks are emblazoned with a skull, a dagger protruding from its head. A Brazilian paramilitary policeman sits in the back of a police truck during a police deployment in Rio de Janeiro in October 2012. Some military police vehicles in Brazil feature this logo of a skull with a dagger sticking out of its head. (Christophe Simon/AFP/Getty Images) If soldiers supporting Bolsonaro believe the election was stolen, they could easily “rise up or try to occupy government buildings,” Hedges said. “I think it could get very violent,” the analyst said, adding that she did not believe current senior military leaders would support a Cold War-style coup, making a full-scale insurgency that would successfully oust the government unlikely.
Political battle for the region
To reduce the chance of a post-election clash, Lula’s supporters hope their candidate will win a convincing mandate, undermining any potential allegations of fraud. In Brazil’s 2018 vote, analysts said Bolsonaro beat a candidate from Lula’s Workers’ Party, based on support from two key demographics: middle-class residents of smaller cities in the country’s heartland and the country’s wealthier southeast and working-class residents living in poorer suburban areas. of the big cities, which historically supported the political left. Winning back working-class suburban voters and swing moderates in the southeast will be key if Lula is to return to Brazil’s Palácio da Alvorada, he said…
