Lance’s ankle break in the first quarter ended his season just as it began. Through two seasons he has just 102 pass attempts, which is the fourth-fewest among top-five picks in their first two seasons since 1967. And he could very well put the Niners in a deep quarterback situation if the conditions play out in a specific way this year. First of all, San Francisco is lucky to be able to hang on to Jimmy Garoppolo. The insurance policy they had by restructuring the former franchise QB is now paying off, and the Niners will gladly pay the extra $350,000 a week if it means he leads them to wins. Winning this season is the most important thing, and what needs to happen next offseason is a bridge that GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan won’t have to cross for several months. But make no mistake: this bridge is going up. Initially, keeping Garoppolo seemed like a tell-tale sign to some that San Francisco would eventually have to bench Lance in favor of Jimmy G. That buzz got louder last week after losing to the 2022 Chicago Big Monsoon. While it’s true that Lance didn’t have an impressive preseason or training camp, I’m told he elevated his game in practice right after Garoppolo’s deal was restructured. There was optimism—perhaps even confidence—that this would work. Now, a major injury setback to the young dual-threat quarterback. The Niners sent two future first-round picks to trade Lance. It’s an important chapter for someone who will have thrown 102 passes to him in two seasons. Shanahan has reiterated that Lance is their guy publicly and privately. But now you have Garoppolo on a one-year, incentivized deal. He took you to one Super Bowl and you come into contact with another. The 49ers arguably have one of the most talented rosters in the entire league. And considering the early shortcomings we’re seeing from Los Angeles, no one would blame you if you’re taking San Francisco to win the NFC West right now. What if Garoppolo goes out? After all, he has won 33 of his 47 career starts and doesn’t even get credit for Sunday’s win against the Seahawks. He has a no-tag clause in his contract, so a big year means a big payday in 2023 for the soon-to-be 31-year-old quarterback. The Niners could see Garoppolo walk out the door for nothing more than a mid-round compensatory pick while handing the franchise over to the inexperienced Lance, and whatever insurance policy they get next March won’t be as good as what they just cashed out. Sunday. There are worse problems than winning a bunch one year only to have to make a tough decision at quarterback months later. But that’s a first-world problem San Francisco could realistically face right after this season.
Tua spreading the wealth
Tua Tagovailoa has played the game of his career so far, and obviously his six touchdowns stand out in what will likely earn him AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors in short order. But how well Tagovailoa ran the ball was just as impressive. Nine Dolphins hit on Sunday against the Ravens and 10 were targeted. Jaylen Waddle had 19 total targets, Tyreek Hill had 13 and Mike Gesicki caught all four of his targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. Waddle’s 19 targets broke his previous career high of 13. Last week, when I sat down with Tagovailoa for a one-on-one interview for NFL Today, I asked him if it was a blessing or a curse to have to answer how he distributes the ball with so many weapons at his disposal. “I think everything is a blessing and a curse. I look at that as a blessing. Being able to have all these guys that I can fly to,” Tagovailoa said. “There are some projects that we would definitely like to return to [in Week 1 against the Patriots] and there are some where things fall apart and on the first read, I got to my last read. Things like this happen and so we have to keep playing the game. You can draw the best plays and have that guy wide open in practice and then in the game it’s completely different. So you just react to what’s given to you out there.” And while Tagovailoa may have responded to outside noise this offseason more than ever, he’s back to shutting out anyone who isn’t in the building or in his circle. “I don’t necessarily go on Twitter because I don’t manage my accounts. I have someone who helps manage my accounts,” he explained. “I would hear it from my teammates and then I’m like, ‘OK, let me see what they said.’ But that’s something I have no control over. What I’m saying about you, you have no control. What you say about me, I have no control over. This is. What can I check? What can’t I check? “Either I let it affect me or I don’t let it affect me. So with my answer, that’s exactly what I’ve heard. Other than that, I go home to my wife and we watch movies and you know, I’m enjoying my life. So go”.
Edit the winning formula
I have a bone to pick with the details. takes a deep breath I believe in analysis. I like the details. I think analytics gets a bad rap among many in the football community. After all, everyone uses analytics to some degree, even if they don’t like the term “analytics.” I struggle with the win probability metric and always have. Before Monday night’s doubleheader, just 30 regular season games have been played so far this year. By my count, five of those have been won when the eventual loser had a 93% or better chance of winning the fourth quarter (and six games when the chance was 90% or better.) Wins that should happen once in 10 of them Some situations—or once in 20—occur with regularity early this season. In Week 1, the Falcons had a 97% chance of winning with 12:55 left in the fourth quarter against the Saints when they had a 23-10 lead. Atlanta lost 27-26. The Bengals had a 93% chance to win tied at 20 with four minutes left in overtime against the Steelers and lost 23-20. On Sunday, the Browns had a better than 99% chance of winning 30-17 with 1:55 left in the game. (OK, I got that.) Baltimore had a 98% chance of winning when the Ravens led 35-21 with 10 minutes left. The Dolphins won 42-38. And the Raiders had a 96 percent chance of winning when they led 23-15 with 16 seconds left against the Cardinals. But Arizona was at the 3-yard line. The Cardinals had to score from 9 feet out and then get the 2-point conversion to tie and score first or more in overtime. Are you telling me that the chance of Arizona winning the game, at that point, was only 4%? That… I just don’t know. My husband RJ White, the director of CBS Sports Fantasy, brought up a good point when I publicly addressed my issues last night. I recognize that I’m looking at a sample size of 30 here and determining when the probability of winning takes into account thousands of games over decades. But that may be exactly the point. Why do we need teams to come back from a 10 point deficit in, say, 1993 like we do today? The NFL has made no secret of its push for league-wide parity. Already 12 games have been decided by three points or fewer, the most over two weeks in any NFL season. Eight teams have overcome deficits of at least 10 points to win or tie, the second-most all-time during Week 2. The game is changing, and those close games and strong finishes regularly drive notes handed out to the media from the league office. All about messages! Maybe we should add “history” before the possibility of winning. Or, people who didn’t get a “C” in the one statistics course they took in college could specify an “adjusted probability of victory” to explain the aforementioned offensive explosion.
Not so special teams
One of the big stories in Week 1 was the kickers, either making or missing big field goal attempts. In Week 2, there were some special teams that may have flown under the radar. Because the Dolphins won in dramatic fashion, it’s easy to forget that they allowed a 103-yard punt return for a touchdown by Devin Duvernay. It was Duvernay’s second career punt return game, but the first allowed by the Dolphins since the 2019 season. In Pittsburgh, the Steelers didn’t stop kicker Brenden Schooler on a punt in the third quarter. Schooler went free down the field to Gunner Olszewski, and when Olszewski fumbled the punt, he was there to collect. The Patriots would score three plays later to extend their lead to 17-6, and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin called it an “important play” in his postgame press conference. And the running issues continued against the Denver Broncos in Week 2. Late in the third quarter, the Broncos lined up for a 54-yard field goal attempt by Brandon McManus, who missed a 64-yard game-winner the previous week at long- the decision was debated of coach Nathaniel Hackett. The Broncos had to take a delay-of-game penalty – their third in seven quarters to that point – and then scored when the attempt would have been 59 meters in good weather and high altitude. “That was something we talked about in those situations beforehand,” Hackett said later. “We decided we wanted to go for the kick and then obviously we had the delay of game and we decided to punt it because our defense was going really well.” They burned their second timeout of the half with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter when they failed to send in a Houston punter. The Broncos had…
